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Weak Premier League about to produce thrilling five-way race for Champions League places
Vendetta 12 years ago
Chelsea FC, Egypt 202 3025

The Barclays Premier League, the Best League In The World™, is not a very good league. It has no truly elite team, and look like a very solid bet to have no participants in the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. Somehow, this might not be a bad thing for entertainment purposes.

Five teams are fighting for two spots in the top four, and none of them are good. Chelsea have a horrible manager, Tottenham Hotspur don't have a real center forward, Arsenal are slightly above average at everything without being great at anything, Liverpool have very little depth and Everton have even less depth. Four of these teams are out of Champions League, or were never there in the first place. The remaining side, Arsenal, are heavy underdogs against Bayern Munich.

Each one of these teams is very deeply flawed, and in most seasons of the Premier League, would seriously struggle to secure a fourth-place finish. This season, one of them has to finish third and two of them have to end the season in Champions League places.

Thanks to the weird state of the bottom-half, where all 10 teams in the lower part of the table could conceivably get relegated, the average points-per-match that these teams end on might indicate that they're partaking in one of the toughest top-four battles ever, but it simply isn't the case. The league's lack of true duds or powerhouses has the Champions League race looking like battle between five extremely deserving sides, rather than a race to see who can fall flat on their faces the slowest. Arsenal and Tottenham have both gone backwards, while Liverpool and Everton have progressed slightly and Chelsea have stagnated. The Arsenal and Tottenham teams from last season could beat the new versions of their themselves, along with the three teams Spurs and Arsenal are in competition with this season.

Of the five sides, Chelsea clearly has the strongest squad. Juan Mata is probably the best attacking player in the league, Petr Cech the best goalkeeper, and their stable of central defenders stronger and deeper than anyone else's. Demba Ba was a brilliant signing, and the magnitude to which he is an upgrade over Fernando Torres is outrageous. Frank Lampard, who scored a ridiculous goal against Newcastle, still has a lot left in the tank. Sure, they could use a great passer in the center, but there's nothing particularly wrong with the Blues' squad.

There is, however, a problem with their manager, a man who has squandered his reputation spectacularly. Once regarded as a world class tactician, Benitez ran Liverpool into the ground in the 2009-10 season, inflicting a wound from which they have yet to fully recover. He did the same to Inter Milan in 2010, and he's working on doing the same to Chelsea in the 2012-13 season. His team selections are asinine, his substitutions are more asinine, and a May feature in the Daily Mail about how the players never respected or wanted to play for Rafa in the first place is basically inevitable at this point.

On Saturday, his midfield got steamrolled by Newcastle and John Terry -- though he's an upgrade over Branislav Ivanovic at central defense -- looked a bit like the aging player he is. They were horrible all match and only close to a draw at any point because of two individually brilliant strikes by Lampard and Mata. Otherwise, a team of exceptionally talented footballers looked clueless and was overrun by a group of mid-table Ligue 1 players who appeared to have some idea of what their manager wanted them to do, while also giving a shit about what he thought of them.

Tottenham and Arsenal both won over the weekend, though in less than impressive circumstances. Spurs were bailed out by a second-half red card, handed to West Bromwich Albion's Goran Popov for spitting at an opponent. Without a creative passer from deep or a real center forward, they needed Gareth Bale to bail them out with a wonder strike. Arsenal failed to break down Stoke City at home, which is par for the course, and squeaked out a similar 1-0 win thanks to a deflected free kick.

Once again, Everton were entirely dependent on Marouane Fellaini to secure a result during this round of fixtures. They conceded three times against Aston Villa, the team in the worst form in the Premier League, with the most goals against and the worst goal differential. They needed their superstar all-around behemoth to steal a draw for them from two goals down, because they didn't have any other way to beat Aston Villa.

On the back of their two draws against top six teams over the last two weeks, Liverpool are a new addition to this list of teams in Champions League contention. A fully-fit Martin Skrtel and a broken-in Coutinho will surely make them legitimate top four, if not top three contenders, given their performances over the last two weeks while Stewart Downing and Jamie Carragher were in their lineup. Downing and Carragher are not only relics from a previous era of Liverpool FC, but relics from a previous era of football, period. The once brilliant Carragher gets by merely on his high-level Old Man Game, while Downing is anything but the dynamic wide player suited for Brendan Rodgers' fluid system that Coutinho is.

A healthy Liverpool, with the added bonus of Coutinho's talents, should make 'Eighthpool' jokes as dated as Carragher's glory days, but beneath Liverpool's very entertaining and likable first-choice starting XI is the cast of characters that guided them to eighth place, followed by a horrible bottom-half start to this year's campaign. Luis Suarez and Lucas are genuinely world class while Daniel Agger isn't terribly far off it, but the loss of any of those three players would be devastating. Without all of them in the team, Liverpool don't stand much of a chance to hang in the race for Champions League spots. With them in the team, they're capable of beating anyone.

There's a lot to like about everyone here, but just as much to despise. None of these teams would qualify as "good teams" in the Premier League's late-2000s glory days, but two of them will have to represent England in next year's Champions League.

While these five deeply flawed teams scare the living daylights out of their fans and worry neutrals that the Premier League is quickly losing its status as Best League In The World™, they're going to provide some truly fantastic entertainment between now and May as they play out the most unpredictable race for Champions League spots in the Premier League era.

If you're a neutral, sit back and enjoy the ride. If you're a fan of any of these five clubs, continue cringing every time your team drops points in an inexplicable fashion, then celebrate when your rivals do exactly the same mere hours later.

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Comments
Lodatz 12 years ago
Tottenham Hotspur, England 150 4992

@raimondo: I'm not saying anyone can be or is as good as Barca; like you say, they've developed it over a long period of time (actually since Cruyff was manager). But make no mistake -- the entire world has been watching, and learning.

Barcelona have shown the world the way to play, and nearly everyone is trying to copy them. Not directly, because, as you say, no-one can actually BE Barcelona, but I'm glad you picked up on Swansea doing it, in particular, because they're one of the most similar. No, Swansea don't have the same players as Barca, so they're nowhere near as good, but the principles are what are the important factor.

I think you're selling United a little short on the manner of their play. however. They're not simply wing-play merchants or counter-attack specialists (though yes, they can do both of those). Valencia and Nani have been hardly used this season, as a result. More goals have come from snaking balls through the middle and into the box than from outside it, and it's not simply one season they've been doing this. The last 2 or 3 have seen United change their playing style quite noticeably, I've observed, to the point where they are as comfortable dinking it around the pitch patiently to one another, waiting for an opening to be exposed, as they are sliding it up the wings and into the penalty area.

Seriously, next time you get the chance to watch a Man Utd game all the way through, do it. I think you'll be amazed at what you recognize in the way they're playing. ;)

Some personnel comparisons:

Ferdinand is basically an old Pique. 
Carrick is doing a very good Busquets, without all the diving.
Scholes is who Xavi tried to copy, so it's easy to understand why they're so similar.
Evra is as good going forward as Alves, and I dare you to disagree. ;)
Rafael is comparable to Alba, though not as comfortable with the ball.
De Gea is the spiritual successor to Valdes, without a doubt, plus can actually shot-stop.
Rooney may look like Shrek, but he's got a pass and a touch like Fabregas.
Kagawa and Cleverly may not be Iniesta (and never will), but you can see they're trying to be.
Chicharito is a Pedro who can actually score.

The only odd-faces, really, are RVP and Welbeck, who have no Barca equivalents. Of course, no-one can bring what Messi brings, either, so, what can you do? ;)

My point was not that they are a carbon copy of Barcelona, but that they've taken so much of what Barca do, and brought it to Old Trafford. Slowly but surely, they're becoming more like the team who beat them twice in CL finals. 

Can't say I blame them. ;)

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Dynastian98 12 years ago
Real Madrid 483 7140

Why don't you gentlemen check out this video arguing about the two leagues a bit and their positions in the Champions League last season? That includes you Vendetta, Footaholic, and Lodatz.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17671353

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Lodatz 12 years ago
Tottenham Hotspur, England 150 4992

@Dynastian: Good chat, though I think there was a lot glossed over. For instance, at the end, when Lawro was pointing out that the best 4 players all play in Spain, he forgot to mention that 3 of them play for the same team. ;)

Again, outside of Real and Barca, where do the top players go? Well, Silva, Mata, Aguero, Torres, Toure etc all went to England. What I think some folks fail to remember is that while they came FROM La Liga, they are NOW in the PL. The same is true of Cazorla, Arteta, Michu, etc. They're all PL players, playing for PL clubs. If someone in the PL buys Isco, or Falcao, then they become PL players too. The same is also true of a ton of Bundesliga players, and Ligue 1 players, and even Serie A players; when they come to the PL, they simply add to its strength.

A good point was made, in fact, which ties into that. Lawro said that the Spanish sides are very good technically, but, also play in a one-dimensional fashion. They don't (or can't) alter their game-play, because they're all trying to emulate the same Barcelona team, and the Spanish passing ethic. 

Which is fine. However, if you were to put hard-to-crack teams from the PL in there with them, suddenly they wouldn't really know what to do. There's virtually no transfer of players from the PL or the Bundesliga INTO La Liga (aside from Real and Barca), and so the Spanish teams really only know how to play one way.

Part of the beauty of the PL is that it has so many different influences, that teams are versatile, and know how to switch tactics to suit different types of opposition. It's how Chelsea won the CL, after all.

Again, once the hurly-burly of this transition between eras is finally settled, we'll see the rise of stellar teams once more, especially as FFP kicks in.

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Dynastian98 12 years ago
Real Madrid 483 7140

@Lodatz

Ah, but you see, all the best La Liga players go to the EPL because of two reasons.

  1. They cannot make the monstrous lineup of either Real or Barca, the only two teams from Spain internationally recognized and respected (let's face it, before Bilbao beat United twice in a row, did anyone even RECOGNIZE them as a good team? Nope)
    and 2. Because their current team is in debt and cannot pay their wages

Let's look at it this way. The ratio of the money earned by the top EPL club and the one that finished bottom from broadcasting is 1.54 : 1. In the 2010-11 season, Man U earned 60 Mil Pounds from broadcasting, while Blackburn earned 40 Mil Pounds. But the Spanish league is much more biased. The ratio in Spain is 12.5 : 1! That means that Barca and Real reeled home 116 Mil Pounds in 2011-12 and Racing only earned 13 Mil Pounds!!! In this respect, the EPL is much more stabilized, but you can see where the problem is generated. The lack of fairness and funds convinces a player to move to the EPL where you have sugar daddies like Abramovich and Sheikh Al Mansour. Even Arsenal and United are very rich, and Tottenham are just an exciting team to play for and have a bright future.

What's more is that the EPL gets SO MUCH coverage across the globe. Even if it's largely thanks to lack of language barriers, the EPL gets approximately 10-12 times more coverage than La Liga, simply because English is the world language and Spanish isn't.

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Lodatz 12 years ago
Tottenham Hotspur, England 150 4992

@Dynastian: I agree with pretty much everything you said.

Plus, there is the extra conundrum with Chelsea and Man City being set, financially, when it comes to SALES, as well as buying. Whereas Real can dazzle Utd by offering 80m for Ronaldo, and Tottenham by paying 35m for Modric (possibly 55+m for Bale), and Barca can offer 30m for Fabregas, etc etc, what are they going to do with City and Chelsea?

Chelsea and City most certainly do not need the money, so, why would they sell? Unless the amount is astronomical, players like Mata, Silva and Aguero are there for good, now, until their clubs just don't want them anymore. Real and Barca are used to bossing around the rest of their own league, and so a great extent the 2nd-tier teams of other leagues, but in City and Chelsea they face two clubs who, at least when it comes to their owners, are much richer than  even they are. Throw PSG into that mix, too.

So, the trend is simply going to continue. Anyone new/promising who emerges in La Liga, will continue to be bought by these rich clubs, knowing that the club they are buying from needs the cash just to cover debts.

I don't think the worldwide coverage plays so much of a role, as the SPANISH TV coverage, which is grossly unfair on anyone except Barca and Real. Until that scenario changes, and La Liga clubs can afford to hang on to their home-grown stars, I don't see any stopping the trend of rich(er) leagues continuing to take advantage of the excellent work that the Spanish canteras are doing. Like I said, if City/Chelsea/PSG/Milan/Barca/Real/Man U want to buy Isco... then they will. Same goes for Falcao, to be honest.

Let's not forget the ridiculous amounts the Russian clubs are suddenly spending, too.

Don't get me wrong; I'm not necessarily arguing that the imbalance is right, or fair. Just that it IS, and will continue to be that way, until La Liga fixes its own internal problems.

So, in the meantime, I truly don't see a decline in the strength of the PL on the horizon, just because there is currently a huge scrap to get into the CL slots. Man City WILL improve in the summer. So will Chelsea. So will Man U, and so will either Spurs, Arsenal, Newcastle, or Everton, depending on who wins out over the next couple of seasons.

Once those 6 teams are no longer competing for their talent on an even footing, we'll start to see the types of concentration we used to see, I feel.

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