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Weak Premier League about to produce thrilling five-way race for Champions League places
Vendetta 12 years ago
Chelsea FC, Egypt 202 3025

The Barclays Premier League, the Best League In The World™, is not a very good league. It has no truly elite team, and look like a very solid bet to have no participants in the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. Somehow, this might not be a bad thing for entertainment purposes.

Five teams are fighting for two spots in the top four, and none of them are good. Chelsea have a horrible manager, Tottenham Hotspur don't have a real center forward, Arsenal are slightly above average at everything without being great at anything, Liverpool have very little depth and Everton have even less depth. Four of these teams are out of Champions League, or were never there in the first place. The remaining side, Arsenal, are heavy underdogs against Bayern Munich.

Each one of these teams is very deeply flawed, and in most seasons of the Premier League, would seriously struggle to secure a fourth-place finish. This season, one of them has to finish third and two of them have to end the season in Champions League places.

Thanks to the weird state of the bottom-half, where all 10 teams in the lower part of the table could conceivably get relegated, the average points-per-match that these teams end on might indicate that they're partaking in one of the toughest top-four battles ever, but it simply isn't the case. The league's lack of true duds or powerhouses has the Champions League race looking like battle between five extremely deserving sides, rather than a race to see who can fall flat on their faces the slowest. Arsenal and Tottenham have both gone backwards, while Liverpool and Everton have progressed slightly and Chelsea have stagnated. The Arsenal and Tottenham teams from last season could beat the new versions of their themselves, along with the three teams Spurs and Arsenal are in competition with this season.

Of the five sides, Chelsea clearly has the strongest squad. Juan Mata is probably the best attacking player in the league, Petr Cech the best goalkeeper, and their stable of central defenders stronger and deeper than anyone else's. Demba Ba was a brilliant signing, and the magnitude to which he is an upgrade over Fernando Torres is outrageous. Frank Lampard, who scored a ridiculous goal against Newcastle, still has a lot left in the tank. Sure, they could use a great passer in the center, but there's nothing particularly wrong with the Blues' squad.

There is, however, a problem with their manager, a man who has squandered his reputation spectacularly. Once regarded as a world class tactician, Benitez ran Liverpool into the ground in the 2009-10 season, inflicting a wound from which they have yet to fully recover. He did the same to Inter Milan in 2010, and he's working on doing the same to Chelsea in the 2012-13 season. His team selections are asinine, his substitutions are more asinine, and a May feature in the Daily Mail about how the players never respected or wanted to play for Rafa in the first place is basically inevitable at this point.

On Saturday, his midfield got steamrolled by Newcastle and John Terry -- though he's an upgrade over Branislav Ivanovic at central defense -- looked a bit like the aging player he is. They were horrible all match and only close to a draw at any point because of two individually brilliant strikes by Lampard and Mata. Otherwise, a team of exceptionally talented footballers looked clueless and was overrun by a group of mid-table Ligue 1 players who appeared to have some idea of what their manager wanted them to do, while also giving a shit about what he thought of them.

Tottenham and Arsenal both won over the weekend, though in less than impressive circumstances. Spurs were bailed out by a second-half red card, handed to West Bromwich Albion's Goran Popov for spitting at an opponent. Without a creative passer from deep or a real center forward, they needed Gareth Bale to bail them out with a wonder strike. Arsenal failed to break down Stoke City at home, which is par for the course, and squeaked out a similar 1-0 win thanks to a deflected free kick.

Once again, Everton were entirely dependent on Marouane Fellaini to secure a result during this round of fixtures. They conceded three times against Aston Villa, the team in the worst form in the Premier League, with the most goals against and the worst goal differential. They needed their superstar all-around behemoth to steal a draw for them from two goals down, because they didn't have any other way to beat Aston Villa.

On the back of their two draws against top six teams over the last two weeks, Liverpool are a new addition to this list of teams in Champions League contention. A fully-fit Martin Skrtel and a broken-in Coutinho will surely make them legitimate top four, if not top three contenders, given their performances over the last two weeks while Stewart Downing and Jamie Carragher were in their lineup. Downing and Carragher are not only relics from a previous era of Liverpool FC, but relics from a previous era of football, period. The once brilliant Carragher gets by merely on his high-level Old Man Game, while Downing is anything but the dynamic wide player suited for Brendan Rodgers' fluid system that Coutinho is.

A healthy Liverpool, with the added bonus of Coutinho's talents, should make 'Eighthpool' jokes as dated as Carragher's glory days, but beneath Liverpool's very entertaining and likable first-choice starting XI is the cast of characters that guided them to eighth place, followed by a horrible bottom-half start to this year's campaign. Luis Suarez and Lucas are genuinely world class while Daniel Agger isn't terribly far off it, but the loss of any of those three players would be devastating. Without all of them in the team, Liverpool don't stand much of a chance to hang in the race for Champions League spots. With them in the team, they're capable of beating anyone.

There's a lot to like about everyone here, but just as much to despise. None of these teams would qualify as "good teams" in the Premier League's late-2000s glory days, but two of them will have to represent England in next year's Champions League.

While these five deeply flawed teams scare the living daylights out of their fans and worry neutrals that the Premier League is quickly losing its status as Best League In The World™, they're going to provide some truly fantastic entertainment between now and May as they play out the most unpredictable race for Champions League spots in the Premier League era.

If you're a neutral, sit back and enjoy the ride. If you're a fan of any of these five clubs, continue cringing every time your team drops points in an inexplicable fashion, then celebrate when your rivals do exactly the same mere hours later.

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Comments
Vendetta 12 years ago
Chelsea FC, Egypt 202 3025

Thoughts about this article? I really think this is true. All teams in who are fighting for top four lack a real CL fighting team (excluding ManUtd). But like they say, with bad quality means more chances for top four qualifications. Which means a much more intense league!

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Vendetta 12 years ago
Chelsea FC, Egypt 202 3025

*top four or higher

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Lodatz 12 years ago
Tottenham Hotspur, England 150 4992

Maybe we'll finally start taking the Europe League seriously, then.

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Lodatz 12 years ago
Tottenham Hotspur, England 150 4992

Also, I disagree that the PL 'lacks a truly elite team'. Man Utd are pretty damn impressive, if you ask me, and more so now that they've finally got their defense back in order. Don't forget how many times they've battled back after early concessions, and still carved out that 9 point lead. 

In the last 6 games, since getting Vidic back, they've kept 3 clean sheets, conceded 3 goals, and scored 12. 

Keeping in mind that Real Madrid are without their world-class goalkeeper, I actually don't buy the idea that Man Utd are some kind of underdog in this year's CL. I don't recall Barcelona in the CL final last year, but no-one seems to write them off. ;)

It's true that each of the 6 teams scrapping for the CL spots are weaker than the 2 or 3 of them that used to duke it out, but that's probably because the talent pool has been diluted. Imagine an Arsenal which had Bale, Vertonghen and Suarez, alongside Fabregas and RVP. Imagine a Chelsea who had picked up Fellaini and Lloris, to go alongside Ba, Mata and Hazard. You'd be looking at 4 world-class squads, who wouldn't be having the troubles this article seems to want to highlight.

The strength of the league is just fine. It's just been spread out in more places, thus making it even more vital to win those places. It's a changing of eras, is all.

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ramaboy10 12 years ago
Mauritius 285 6463

Why don't they do this for other leagues , and make the CL bigger?

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GunnerAFC 12 years ago
Arsenal, England 47 1026

Speaking on the GK situation with Real Madrid.. Casillas' replacement, Diego Lopez, while a member of Villarreal, Lopez faced off against Manchester United in the 2008-09 CL; the two sides drew 0-0 in both of the matches in the group stage.  

Real Madrid still have a very good GK between the sticks, even though he hasn't played much. 

But I do expect United to score goals. They have Van Persie. He alone is better than Higuain & Benzema. 

But I have Madrid winning at home, but at Old Trafford.. anything can happen. 

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Vendetta 12 years ago
Chelsea FC, Egypt 202 3025

I agree and disagree with you, Lodatz. Yes some teams like Tottenham, Chelsea, and Liverpool are changing eras. We are getting rid of the old guards and injecting some youth. Even then we have a lot of cons. Chelsea lack the proper world class manager. Tottenham lack that world class striker, and need to prepare an excellent replacement for Bale when leaves this summer. Liverpool on the other hand lack a bit of depth. To win, Liverpool need Suarez, Gerrard, Coutinho, and Sturridge. If one of them are rested, Liverpool lose their touch by a bit. They rest 3 of them, Liverpool suffer horribly.  Other top four fighting teams like Everton and Arsenal are not changing eras. Everton also lack depth, and rely too much on one man. Fellaini is the spark Everton have. Without him, they would have suffered a 3-0 loss to one of the worst teams this season in the form of Aston Villa. Only really elite EPL team for now in the Champions League is Manchester United. If Tottenham, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, or Everton qualify to the CL with a closely related team next season, they will never pass the likes of BVB, Bayern, Barcelona, Juventus, Milan, and Real Madrid.

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knibis 12 years ago
Valencia, Sweden 181 2500

" I actually don't buy the idea that Man Utd are some kind of underdog in this year's CL. I don't recall Barcelona in the CL final last year, but no-one seems to write them off. ;)"

uhm.. maybe because Barca perfomes really well in the league. Plays a really good and effective football. About that semi last year. 
Apoel from Cyprus reached quarters last year, does that mean they are top 8 in Europe  no. play the barcasemi again 9 times more.. and barca will win it those 9 times. football has some unexpected results sometimes..

And yes i do think Real got atleast a 70% to go to the next round...

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Vendetta 12 years ago
Chelsea FC, Egypt 202 3025

when *he leaves this summer. I have got to start proofreading :P.

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Lodatz 12 years ago
Tottenham Hotspur, England 150 4992

@Vendetta: Well, sure, but here's the thing: as those CL slots are won, the advantage goes to those who won them. There is no way that this 6-way battle is going to be a permanent thing, in the PL. It's just the come-down for Chelsea, and the slow deterioration of Arsenal and Liverpool, while Tottenham and Everton (and don't forget Man City) having risen to rival them. I think the next two seasons are going to be crucial, and the balance that exists right now is going to be changed by that.

If Arsenal can hold their place, they'll strengthen. If Chelsea can hang in there, they'll strengthen too. So will Spurs, Liverpool and Everton. Whoever doesn't make it, is going to further decline. The power shift is finely poised, and could go any way; it's almost like a relegation scrap of it's own. Those who win out in these next couple of seasons are going to become heavyweights in the seasons after.

@knibis: "uhm.. maybe because Barca perfomes really well in the league. Plays a really good and effective football. About that semi last year."

Didn't Barca just draw with Valencia, and lose to Sociedad a couple of weeks ago? They also drew with Malaga in the first leg of their Copa Del Rey tie. Goodness me, are Barca not good enough any more?

And if you think that Man Utd don't play attractive football, then you're just further proving that you don't watch any PL football at all.

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Lodatz 12 years ago
Tottenham Hotspur, England 150 4992

As for the 70% of Real going through, this is the same Real who just lost to Granada.. ;)

No-one has said that Real is crap, but there's really not much to reason to count them as a favorite for anything, the way they've played this season. Unless, that is, one believes the type of things that the commentators on BEIN Sport say. ;)

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DonAndres 12 years ago
Barcelona 62 1138

@Lodatz
Yes mate,Barca lost to sociedad and draw to Valencia.
But have a look at the table.
Personally i think that if real Madrid was 3 points away from Barca Barcelona would have beaten Valencia.
I mean that the players didnt care so much to win.
they are not motivated anymore because there is no reason to be.
As For the Draw against malaga,ok they draw but they won easily the second game.
This Season Barca has only 1 Defeat and 2 draws in the league and 1 defeat in the CHL.If i remember well the stats are much better than Guardiolas Dream team..

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Vendetta 12 years ago
Chelsea FC, Egypt 202 3025

I actually think Arsenal and Chelsea are the teams deteriorating. Thanks to Chelsea's big wallet, they'll survive even if they don't make it. They'll be set back a bit, but they'll bounce back soon enough. In my opinion, if Wenger doesn't make the top four this year, he is done. As for Chelsea, as I've stated already, we only need a world class manager and set. We arguably have the best youth academy in England (I've used this excuse a lot, but come on... Winning two FA Youth Cups in a row and still reigning champions is something). As for Everton, I think they could make it if they fight for it. And I mean really give every ounce of heart in to the season. As for Tottenham, I think they'll nip Arsenal this year. My predictions for the top 4 in the EPL (in order from 1st) is Manchester United, ManCity, Chelsea, and Tottenham (or switch places with Chelsea). I can't see Arsenal making it this year. Neither Liverpool.

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Lodatz 12 years ago
Tottenham Hotspur, England 150 4992

@DonAndres: Believe me, I wasn't suggesting that Barcelona are suffering; far from it. I was trying to make the point to knibis that when he says: "Barcelona play well in the league", he seems to be implying that Man Utd don't, and that Barca never slip up, which is clearly not the case. Man Utd have nearly matched Barca this year, in fact, in terms of wins -- they've won all but 5. 

If Barca are dominating La Liga with ease, so too are Man Utd in the PL. I see no reason why Real should be a favorite to them, when Real are dropping points left, right, and centre, and looking about as good as Chelsea. ;)

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Lodatz 12 years ago
Tottenham Hotspur, England 150 4992

@Vendetta: I agree with you, about Chelsea, but because of the fact they will have such cash reserves, I don't see them hanging out below the CL spots for much longer. If Arsenal don't make it, then Chelsea and Man City will start raiding their squad, and the same could happen to Everton or Spurs, too, if they're not careful.

But, again, that's why it's not really a drop in league strength, it's just that the strength of the league is not concentrated in the squads of just 2 or 3 clubs anymore.

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knibis 12 years ago
Valencia, Sweden 181 2500

"Didn't Barca just draw with Valencia, and lose to Sociedad a couple of weeks ago? They also drew with Malaga in the first leg of their Copa Del Rey tie. Goodness me, are Barca not good enough any more?"

@Lodatz. Barca has won all but 3 games in the league. They are the best team in the world atm.

and when did i say something about united playing unatractive?? did u read my comment, And i do watch PL sometimes actually. But u cant put Man Utd on the same level as Barca and real. you just cant

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DonAndres 12 years ago
Barcelona 62 1138

@Lodatz 
Thats a great point.
But in my opinion it has not to do with how the teams are doing in their league.
For example Chelsea last year eliminated Barcelona.
Even at the group stages Real madrid had better results than Man City.
When it is a game at Champions League especially at a Knockout stage the last thing that matters in my opinion is how a team performs at the League.
For Me Madrid has more Chances than United to go through(of course not 70-30) but 55-45.
I support this only because that i think that Real has better players and that madrid top performance is a bit higher than Manchester's one.I cannot explain it but i hope you "catch" me.

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Vendetta 12 years ago
Chelsea FC, Egypt 202 3025

@Don: I disagree about Madrid beating Manchester United. Real Madrid compared to United are shit. They can't get passed Atletico Madrid. I see Manchester United going through.

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Vendetta 12 years ago
Chelsea FC, Egypt 202 3025

Btw, I mean compared to each other THIS SEASON.

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