With only 25 points and 16 goals in 17 games, Argentina reaches the last round of qualifiers with a lousy campaign and real risk of being out of the World Cup for the first time since 1970. In the decisive game, next Tuesday (10/10), Messi and company visit the eliminated Ecuador in Quito. Understand the scenarios that eliminate or classify Argentines:

To be on top 4 and qualify directly:

1. Wins next match:

Argentina has to cheer for one of the following scenarios:

• Chile defeat or draw against Brazil;
• Draw between Colombia and Peru;
• Peru's victory over Colombia by a lesser goal difference than Argentina's victory.

2. Draws next match:

Argentina would depend on:

• Brazillian victory over Chile by two or more goals AND Colombian victory over Peru AND Paraguay does not win Venezuela at home;
• Brazillian victory over Chile by two or more goals AND Peruvian victory over Colombia by two or more goals AND Paraguay does not win Venezuela at home.

3. Loses next match:

It is impossible for Argentina to be in top four at this point.

To advance to inter-confederation playoffs:

1. Wins next match:

Argentina automatically gets to play against New Zealand.

2. Draws next match:

Argentina has to cheer for two of following four scenarios:

• Brazil's victory over Chile by two or more goals;
• Colombia's victory over Peru;
• Peru's victory over Colombia by two or more goals;
• Paraguay does not win Venezuela.

3. Loses next match:

Argentina is still able to go to Russia 2018, but the combination is far more unlikely:

• Peru needs to lose by a goal difference superior to that of Argentine defeat to Ecuador AND Paraguay does not win Venezuela.

In my opinion, it seems that Argentina has greater chances to qualify for World Cup than to fail miserably.
Despite Ecuador losing five times in a row, they are not a bad team, considering that Ecuador won the same amount of matches as Argentina, and the last match between them ended 2-0 for Ecuador at Argentine home. They also won Uruguay 2-1 at home.

Disgress (maybe): I know people will bash me for this...... World rank wise, South America has 4 teams in top 10, 6 teams in top 20, and 8 teams in top 40. The World Cup has 32 participants. Considering the quality of other teams in other qualifiers, this format is quite unjust for us to play. The competition in Conmebol is just insane.

A win is a must now for Argentina.

There is also a scenario that Colombia wins Peru and Chile draws Brazil so Argentina goes over Peru and Chile in points as well in case of the win because in that case Argentina would have 28 points while Chile 27 and Peru stays at 25.

The pressure is huge but at the same time Ecuador doesn't really care at this point so maybe they just let Argentina win :p

@Golazo doubt it, south american teams are not the type to just let other teams come to their turf and hand them the win so willingly :p
Like Venezuela managing to get a draw against Argentina in Buenos Aires, even though Venezuela had no chances to qualify

Disgress (maybe): I know people will bash me for this...... World rank wise, South America has 4 teams in top 10, 6 teams in top 20, and 8 teams in top 40. The World Cup has 32 participants. Considering the quality of other teams in other qualifiers, this format is quite unjust for us to play. The competition in Conmebol is just insane.

While I partially agree with you, Argentina should be doing significantly better based on the players at their disposal. There are going to be several teams who will qualify for the World Cup without a single player in Europe's top 5 leagues, whereas Argentina have some of the best. That they are even struggling here is ridiculous. That being said, much like derbies, regional international competitions can have some odd results. In CONCACAF right now, freaking Panama is ahead of the United States right now - and the US hasn't come close to missing a World Cup for 25 years and has performed better in the competition itself over that time period than notable nations such as England. As for South America, five spots seems pretty just. If you go to Europe, teams such as Zlatan's Sweden have missed out in the past, Greece has already been eliminated, as have Turkey. Wales has an excellent chance of missing despite Gareth Bale and other notable players from the EPL. The only place I'd even consider cutting is Asia (do they really need five teams) but in the end they have triple the nations that South America does.

World rankings are full of it anyway, we all know this.

@Yvan I know I was just kidding a bit. Argentina lacks a real leader and honestly I'm suprised that Sampaoli so far didn't manage to make a team out of Argentina but when it's the hardest they get stubborn and proud and pull through so maybe this last game is what it takes for Argentina to become a team to win the World Cup itself, they got huge talents in their squad.

World rankings are full of it anyway, we all know this.

To this day I still don't understand how they come up with that ish

Somalia, who I won't even bother checking where they stand in the rankings, can win the next 10 matches in a row and show up in the top 3... It's pathetic

@Golazo yea idk either. They got the players and they got a good manager, but somehow they still can't play like a team. It's like a mental block and they can't snap out of it.

@Golazo111 @Yvan21

Actually, something in Argentina bothers me: they have not converted their last 73 shots.
Despite all the star players and arguably best attackers in the world, Argentina has the 2nd lowest GF: 16 goals in 17 games. Only Bolivia has lower score.
It`s not that they haven't created chances. They actually create a lot.

They didn't score since Messi's goal against Chile, in March 23rd. OG doesn't count.

Against Bolivia, 15 shots, 6 on goal, none converted.
Against Uruguay, 10 shots, 3 on goal, none converted.
Against Venezuela, 21 shots, 6 on goal, none converted.
Against Peru yesterday, 22 shots, 6 on goal, none converted.

I think that's why Sampaoli tried Benedetto. He has been really good recently for Boca Juniors.
He also tried Alejandro Gómez (Atalanta) and Emiliano Rigoni (Zenit).

It's as if the attackers are cursed.

BTW, I'm Brazillian, and yeah, I hear a lot of people talking about losing to Chile on purpose, but they are all joking.
As @Yvan21 said, even if the team is already qualified, or have no chances, we do hate losing anyways. xD
I think Brazil did pretty good yesterday, and only didn't score because their GK Lampe was very, very, very inspired.
Like, WTF, 13 difficult saves? Most of them on 1 on 1? Not mentioning Valencia who kicked the ball out on the line 2 times.
Well, the media and some supporters are bashing on Neymar for not winning. They feel a win in La Paz is an obligation.

I have a feeling GKs have their best matches against Brazil. Reminds me of Ochoa from Mexico, for example.
Guess what, Ochoa flopped (sorry if I offend anyone) after WC2014. -_-

Please, I really can’t stand the thought of another Messi collapse. Please Argentina, don’t fuck this up.

Hope Chile and Argentina get their tickets!

@Amir_keal I get what you mean mate. Hope they qualify. :)

@kirsi16 Very good thread mate, keep up the good work. ;) Winning in La Paz is very hard even for the best team in the world and I think its a bit unfair to bash Brazil for it. Anyway, good luck in WC and against Chile. :D

The thing is, with what we've been playing, we surely dont deserve to qualify. Its embarrasing how little character and how mentally weak our players became with the national team. The national press really screwed the players up with the constant harrassing and belittiling.

We need our identity back. Messi is trying so hard and at many times he is alone. Also, luck has not been on our side whatsoever.

If we win nect match were through.a draw puts it in dount..

@Liomesssi A draw put Argentina in donut? Thats terrible. :U

PS: I know you meant doubt, it just that dount is so much closer to donut that I had to make the joke. :P

Too bad they didn't bring Higuain so he could help them eat their way out of the donut

@Yvan XD Thats brillant... and a bit mean, but brillant above all else. :D

@Emo lol thanks :p I feel bad for Higuain though, because I feel he's been sort of the scapegoat for why Argentina wasn't performing accordingly. Yes he's had big misses in both finals (WC and Copa America Centenario) and that's why he gets a lot of crap, but it's not like Argentina has improved since they've stopped using him.

@Yvan Fair enough even though I still think Higuain has proven even at club level that he have harder time performing under pressure. :(

@emo lollll!! Its not terrible tho!!! Can eat their way out of it!!

With Aguero injured and such mediocre midfielders all round. It would be real tough.

@Yvan: Higuain is like a gamble, he can completely screw you up in an easy chance under big pressure. And the next game he can be good. He can help this time though, but he has proven again and again to flop in important moment.

I have a bad feeling. I wonder if they will let Messi takes the scoring and hope for good ball from the mid, of let him play deep to creat chances...

Best of luck to them...

Why not dybala or icardi!!!?

Messi wants the ball in his feet all the time and Dybala said it's hard to play with Messi they are similar position.
Icardi will most likely start the last game though.