How Chaos Conquered the Premier League

KTBFFHSWE 9 years ago

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How Chaos Conquered the Premier League

English soccer normally follows a fairly predictable script, but this year’s narrative is a convoluted mess where Chelsea is down and Leicester is up

London

Five months into the English Premier League soccer season, it still doesn’t make much sense.

Leicester City, which flirted with relegation a year ago, is in the title fight. Chelsea, which won the championship a year ago, is not. Arsenal has lost one fifth of its games. It is also on top of the standings. And Manchester City, the league’s most talented squad, appears to have lost the ability to play defense.

It’s been that sort of year in English soccer. For the first time since 1999, the Premier League is set to be won by a team with fewer than 80 points. But what no one can seem to figure out is whether the most wide-open championship in years is actually any good.

“That’s the question everyone is asking: Is this the worst league ever or the best league ever?” Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger said. “You can go both ways.”

For reasons that range from the increased financial might of English clubs to the re-emergence of some unfashionable tactics, this is the most unpredictable English title race in recent memory.

In most seasons, parity usually expires some time around November as the league’s usual suspects take control. And yet, here we are in January, with few clues as to who will lift the trophy in May. Manchester City manager Manuel Pellegrini called it “a special season”—in the same way a parent might describe their 5-year-old’s art project.

The chaos started when two of the regular contenders fell apart at the same time. While Manchester United ’s demise was a slow rot, Chelsea has imploded like a dying star. Under second-year manager Louis van Gaal, Manchester United has played such stultifying soccer that fans used to chanting “Attack, attack, attack!” are instead pondering the game’s existential questions. Will we ever score again? What is attacking soccer? And just how old is Wayne Rooney?

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Van Gaal appeared to be heading for the exit over the holiday period. With the club outside the top four, even he recognized the possibility. “It is not always like that that the club has to fire or sack me,” he said. “Sometimes I do it myself.”

Then, amid rumors of his imminent dismissal, United pulled out a couple of positive results—just enough to save him. The same mini-turnaround happened at Chelsea, but only after the club sent manager Jose Mourinho packing and replaced him with Guus Hiddink. The Blues, who were already plodding to the title by this time last year, are currently closer to the relegation zone in 14th place.

“You see how it is, all the big teams are losing points as well,” said Hiddink, whose side faces West Brom on Wednesday.

As the top sides crawl along, the league’s middle class is making up ground. Arsenal, which travels to Liverpool this week, has the lowest points total for a leader at this stage of the season since 2003. And the gap between first and fourth is the smallest at this point since 2002. Those years aren’t a coincidence.

In 2003, Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich bought Chelsea and kicked off English soccer’s arms race. Over the seasons that followed, Chelsea and Manchester United duked it out on a different financial plane from their rivals, winning the league with points totals in the high 80s and low 90s.

It took a decadelong increase in television rights money—which now sees every club guaranteed a minimum share of $100 million just for showing up—to begin evening out the playing field.

Still, the ability to spend more lavishly isn’t the only reason smaller clubs can attract better players. Wenger points out that clubs up and down the league have made huge organizational strides, too. Leicester City’s chief talent-spotter, for instance, formerly served as a scout for Chelsea under Mourinho.

And the Foxes have shown exactly what is possible with some careful recruiting and a set of tactics that had been gathering dust for the best part of a decade—in this case, the plain old 4-4-2 formation. In last place at Christmas 2014, the Foxes were in first place a year later.

“When you go to Leicester, you see who sits on the bench at Leicester, it has changed,” Wenger said.

But they’re not the only modest club to click this season. Newly-promoted Watford, also reviving the 4-4-2, is in the top half. Crystal Palace, saved from a relegation battle last year, is in seventh. As late as mid-November, five teams that flirted with relegation in recent seasons were still enjoying their best ever start to a Premier League campaign, according to Opta Sports.

“It is surprising that everybody can lose anywhere,” Wenger said, though this season, “anywhere” has usually meant “West Ham.”

A consistently mid-table side, the Hammers have become emblematic of this wild season, striking unexpected blows against all of the usual contenders. On the first day, they shocked Arsenal. They also won home and away against Liverpool, on the road at Manchester City, and at home against Chelsea.

Results like those have scrubbed the aura off the top sides. Fear is disappearing from the Premier League. The only club that seems not to care about the mess around it is Leicester City. Until this month, the Foxes’ only focus was hitting 40 points and avoiding relegation. Talk of the Champions League or even the title meant nothing, even from second place.

“We achieved 40 points and at the moment we are safe,” manager Claudio Ranieri said. “Now we start a new season.”

Source: http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-chaos-conquered-the-premier-league-1452557683?mod=e2tw