World Cup: Biggest Potential Banana Skins for Each Favourite Throughout the Knockout Stage

The World Cup is almost here, and for the favourites, the pressure is on. Brazil crumbled under the weight of expectation four years ago, losing to Croatia on penalties in the quarterfinals, marking their second straight exit — and fourth in five tournaments — at that stage. Four years before them, Germany headed to Russia as overwhelming favourites to defend the title they won so impressively in 2014, but they fell victim to the champion's curse and were shockingly dumped out at the group stage.

So, who are the betting favourites this time around? Well, the latest Bovada World Cup betting odds currently earmark Spain as the clear 9/2 frontrunners, with France hot on their heels at 5/1 as they hunt for a third straight final appearance and a second trophy in three tournaments. But if either of those teams are to win the tournament, then they will no doubt have to avoid a banana skin or two throughout the knockout rounds. Here are the biggest of them that they will have to negate.

Spain: Quarterfinal vs USA

Spain romped to a record-breaking fourth European Championship two years ago, knocking off hosts Germany, favourites France, and finally England to secure the title. But the thing about that success is that it came ahead of schedule. Prodigious winger Lamine Yamal only turned 17 in the days before the final, while the likes of Pedri, Nico Williams, and Fermín López were all just 21. Two years on, each of them has matured into a genuine superstar, and they are now even more primed and ready to take the world by storm than they were at Euro 2024.

Luis de la Fuente's side will almost certainly top Group H ahead of Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde. That will likely set up a Round of 32 game against Austria and a Round of 16 clash with either Colombia or Croatia, a game that La Roja will be heavily favoured to win, no matter the opponent.

In the quarterfinals, however, Spain could well find a banana skin in the form of hosts USA. If the Stars and Stripes make it this far, it will have already taken a herculean effort, as they will need to top Group D — which the bookies make them the favourites to do — and then beat a Belgium team that just thumped them 5-2 in a recent friendly in Atlanta. However, having home support on side does strange things to a team.

The best recent proof of that came in 2018, when hosts Russia progressed all the way to the quarterfinals, despite being the lowest-ranked team heading into the tournament, even beating Spain on penalties along the way. This USA team is better than that Sbornaya team was, with the likes of Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, and Folarin Balogun all capable matchwinners on their day. With a raucous fanbase at their back, Mauricio Pochettino's side will somehow find their way to a quarterfinal clash against La Roja in Los Angeles, and it's up to de la Fuente's men to somehow avoid being upset by the Cinderella-like hosts.

France: Round of 16 vs Germany

France have reached each of the last two World Cup finals, winning the first on that rainy afternoon in Moscow in 2018 before succumbing to Lionel Messi and his destiny-bound Argentina four years later. Fast forward to now, and in long-serving manager Didier Deschamps' final tournament in charge of Les Bleus, his side are contenders once again.

Does any nation have a squad as stacked as the French? Captain Kylian Mbappe leads the line in a tournament he has made his own over the last eight years, while reigning Ballon d'Or winner Ousmane Dembele provides plenty of support. They will surely top Group I ahead of both Norway and Senegal.

But despite all the hype, France will have arguably the most testing clash of any of the favourites in the round of 16 as they will likely face a new-look Germany team determined to leave the bitter memories of 2018 and 2022 in the rearview mirror. Die Mannschaft returned to form as hosts of Euro 2024 as they reached the quarterfinals before losing in controversial fashion to eventual champions Spain. Two years on, and the experience from that painful defeat will spur them on to deliver on the grandest stage.

Young attacking talents Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz have the ability to unlock any defence. At the back, deep-lying playmaker Joshua Kimmich remains elite, while the experienced duo of Antonio Rudiger and Jonathan Tah is as good as any defensive pairing at the tournament. Add to that the return of iconic 40-year-old goalkeeper Manuel Neuer between the sticks, and Julian Nagelsmann has experience in all the right places. They could well upset the French and bring their tournament to a shock early end.

Published by Patrick Jane
27.05.2026