PSG took control of this tie in the first leg, securing a 2–0 home win that now gives them a clear edge heading into Anfield.
What stands out even more than the result is how solid the French side have been defensively. Over the past month, PSG have played four matches and conceded just one goal. Liverpool, just like Chelsea in the previous round, simply couldn’t find a way through that defence.
Now the English side get a second chance — this time at home. But the task is straightforward and difficult at the same time: Liverpool need at least two goals just to bring the tie back to level terms.
Interestingly, meetings between these two sides have been rare in recent years. Since 2018, they’ve faced each other only five times, and the balance is almost perfectly even — two wins each in regular time, plus one PSG victory on penalties. There’s very little between them historically.
The game state, however, clearly favours PSG. Luis Enrique’s team don’t need to force anything here. Even a narrow defeat would be enough for them to go through on aggregate, which means their approach is likely to be pragmatic and controlled.
Liverpool will have to take risks sooner or later, but breaking down a defence that has barely conceded in recent weeks is far from simple. The longer PSG keep things tight, the more the pressure will grow on the home side.
Everything points toward a relatively cautious game, especially in the early stages. Don’t expect an open, end-to-end battle right away.
Prediction: This has all the signs of a low-scoring match. Under 2.5 goals looks like the most reasonable pick.