The traditions of the Africa Cup of Nations 2026 have been respected. Once again, serious attendance issues. Once again, conflicts inside the Nigeria national team (and not only them), with threats of boycotts over bonus payments. Once again, as the tournament reaches the decisive stages, goal-scoring almost drops below zero. Across two semi-finals, fans saw just one goal. Thank you, Sadio Mané!
The Senegalese star proved that individual brilliance doesn’t disappear after leaving Europe’s top leagues. Another sleep-inducing positional attack, a blocked shot, a loose ball. Situations like this happen in every match. But executing at the right moment, under fatigue (it was the 78th minute), is something only true masters can do. Mané is one of them. He tucked the ball inside the near post and sent his country into the final.
Morocco, meanwhile, spent 120 minutes wrestling with Nigeria in the semi-final. You might want to use other words — played, fought, clashed — but none would be entirely true. The hosts of AFCON tried to play football, pushed forward. Their opponents, however, camped around their own penalty area and waited, waited, waited. And they got what they wanted: 0–0, a penalty shootout — and then Yassine Bounou stepped in. The hero of the 2022 World Cup once again decided the outcome.
In the final, we’ll likely see the two best teams of the tournament, which is encouraging. Interestingly, head-to-head history won’t help us much. These are big-name, high-status teams, but since 2012 they’ve met only twice — both times in friendlies. For the record: Senegal won in 2012 (1–0), and eight years later Morocco got their revenge (3–1).
Morocco were clearly weighed down by home pressure at the start of the tournament. Nervous, rigid, afraid to take risks, with a high error rate. Gradually, they settled down and found their rhythm. But a final is a different story. History is within touching distance, and there’s a strong chance emotions could take over again at the crucial moment.
That’s why we’ll stay away from outright results. Instead, we’ll lean into a low-scoring approach. The semi-finals already gave us plenty of closed, cautious football, and now the cost of a mistake is even higher.
Bet: Draw in the first half of the AFCON final at odds of 2.05.