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Villareal Dilema : Europa League versus La Liga: where do we prioritize?
tiki_taka 10 years ago Edited
Barcelona, France 367 9768

From Villareal USA website.

Villarreal-Sevilla: the two teams play three times in ten days. Here's our March schedule:

March 12 Villarreal vs Sevilla El Madrigal

March 15 Almeria vs Villarreal (away)

March 19 Sevilla vs Villarreal (away)

March 22 Villarreal vs Sevilla El Madrigal

It's very strange, isn't it! I suppose we return home after the Almeria match, since it's the early game on the Sunday, then fly to Andalusia again on the 18th.

Getting to the CL: some statistical analysis

Remember the winner of the Europa League gets a Champions League place (it's added to those already allocated, so if we won, we'd become a fifth Spanish CL team). We'd have to win four matches to get that place, and if we figure we have a 50% chance of winning each match, we'd have a 6% chance of winning the thing. That's conservative, though--I figure we'd be favorites in some of those ties and to be honest, if we get past Sevilla I'd give us even odds to get to the flnal, anyway--so I'd bump up our chances to win to between 10-15%.

What about catching Valencia for fourth and getting to the CL that way? Well, we could do it, sure, but to be honest it probably requires us to defeat Valencia in the Mestalla (April 4). I feel less confident about winning that tie than I do about winning any Europa League tie....maybe a 20-30% chance of winning there at best. And if we do win, maybe there is a 50-50 chance we make up the remaining points and finish fourth. So that looks like about a 10-15% chance, again. Statistics say the two chances are equal.

But it's not all statistics....

The Europa League offers several advantages apart from a CL place. There's money, of course---we already have earned just under €3m from the competition proper, and TV moneys get added to that. We've probably earned around €5.5-6m already if you include the TV pool, but getting to the final gets you another €4m (6.5m if you win the thing).

And apart from money, there's pride and prestige--even more important. Villarreal have come close before (semifinals) and it would be a really great thing if we could make it to the semis again, much less get to a final. Unlike Sevilla, who won the Europa League last year (and won it twice in a row when it was the UEFA Cup, so it's not like even that would be a new experience!), the value of getting to a final would be incalculable.

This weekend could decide a lot....

Marcelino has been adamant about rotating players, and clearly prioritized the Salzburg match over the Madrid one--note his comment afterward that "we won't see the same players against Madrid". This week, our midweek priority is the second leg of the Copa semifinal at home Wednesday. Regardless of whether we win or lose that, you'd have to think we would be looking to rest some players on Sunday against Celta, since we want to put out our strongest lineup at El Madrigal for the first leg of the Europa League.

The other key match on Sunday is Atletico-Valencia, which takes place after ours. Should Valencia win, they would leapfrog Atleti into third, and then (a) we would be between 8 and 11 points behind Valencia; (b) 6 to 9 points behind Atleti. And we still have Atleti to play in El Madrigal. Should Atleti win, Valencia would be 5 to 8 points ahead, and Atleti 9 to 12 points ahead. A draw would leave both at least six or seven points ahead of us depending on our result.

I'm liking the Europa League priority more and more, especially if our 'second lineup' can play like they did Sunday.

By Allen Dodson, March 3.

Fair enough, was surprised too to see their main players VS Salzburg on thursday while playing Madrid a Bernabeu on sunday, the coach is very wise to favourise EL for a CL qualification and completely surprised by the bench players looking to Galacticos in eyes after securing a 3-1 win away in Salzbur.

I personnally backing Yellow submarines ahead of Sevilla in the Spanish clash of EL, they met way too early imo, very classy choice to play the competition the right way...

And their depth is pretty good, despite loosing Paulista to Arsenal, they still have mamny weapons on the bench and i wish them to win a trophy this year except Copa del Rey.

Villarreal should put out a strong lineup--Vietto and Uche up front, probably; Cheryshev, Pina, Trigueros and Jonathan dos Santos in midfield; Mario, Musacchio, Ruiz and Jaume Costa as the back four in front of Asenjo. Most of these players--the fullbacks and keeper being the exceptions--either didn't play at all on Sunday or saw less than thirty minutes of action.

Their loanee Joel Campbell was their weakest link vs Madrid, in addition to Bailey the one under the PK on Ronaldo, both wont play because both are bench players...

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  • History
Showing previous versions of this text.

From Villareal USA website.

Villarreal-Sevilla: the two teams play three times in ten days. Here's our March schedule:

March 12 Villarreal vs Sevilla El Madrigal

March 15 Almeria vs Villarreal (away)

March 19 Sevilla vs Villarreal (away)

March 22 Villarreal vs Sevilla El Madrigal

It's very strange, isn't it! I suppose we return home after the Almeria match, since it's the early game on the Sunday, then fly to Andalusia again on the 18th.

Getting to the CL: some statistical analysis

Remember the winner of the Europa League gets a Champions League place (it's added to those already allocated, so if we won, we'd become a fifth Spanish CL team). We'd have to win four matches to get that place, and if we figure we have a 50% chance of winning each match, we'd have a 6% chance of winning the thing. That's conservative, though--I figure we'd be favorites in some of those ties and to be honest, if we get past Sevilla I'd give us even odds to get to the flnal, anyway--so I'd bump up our chances to win to between 10-15%.

What about catching Valencia for fourth and getting to the CL that way? Well, we could do it, sure, but to be honest it probably requires us to defeat Valencia in the Mestalla (April 4). I feel less confident about winning that tie than I do about winning any Europa League tie....maybe a 20-30% chance of winning there at best. And if we do win, maybe there is a 50-50 chance we make up the remaining points and finish fourth. So that looks like about a 10-15% chance, again. Statistics say the two chances are equal.

But it's not all statistics....

The Europa League offers several advantages apart from a CL place. There's money, of course---we already have earned just under €3m from the competition proper, and TV moneys get added to that. We've probably earned around €5.5-6m already if you include the TV pool, but getting to the final gets you another €4m (6.5m if you win the thing).

And apart from money, there's pride and prestige--even more important. Villarreal have come close before (semifinals) and it would be a really great thing if we could make it to the semis again, much less get to a final. Unlike Sevilla, who won the Europa League last year (and won it twice in a row when it was the UEFA Cup, so it's not like even that would be a new experience!), the value of getting to a final would be incalculable.

This weekend could decide a lot....

Marcelino has been adamant about rotating players, and clearly prioritized the Salzburg match over the Madrid one--note his comment afterward that "we won't see the same players against Madrid". This week, our midweek priority is the second leg of the Copa semifinal at home Wednesday. Regardless of whether we win or lose that, you'd have to think we would be looking to rest some players on Sunday against Celta, since we want to put out our strongest lineup at El Madrigal for the first leg of the Europa League.

The other key match on Sunday is Atletico-Valencia, which takes place after ours. Should Valencia win, they would leapfrog Atleti into third, and then (a) we would be between 8 and 11 points behind Valencia; (b) 6 to 9 points behind Atleti. And we still have Atleti to play in El Madrigal. Should Atleti win, Valencia would be 5 to 8 points ahead, and Atleti 9 to 12 points ahead. A draw would leave both at least six or seven points ahead of us depending on our result.

I'm liking the Europa League priority more and more, especially if our 'second lineup' can play like they did Sunday.

By Allen Dodson, March 3.

Fair enough, was surprised too to see their main players VS Salzburg on thursday while playing Madrid a Bernabeu on sunday, the coach is very wise to favourise EL for a CL qualification and completely surprised by the bench players looking to Galacticos in eyes after securing a 3-1 win away in Salzbur.

I personnally backing Yellow submarines ahead of Sevilla in the Spanish clash of EL, they met way too early imo, very classy choice to play the competition the right way...

And their depth is pretty good, despite loosing Paulista to Arsenal, they still have mamny weapons on the bench and i wish them to win a trophy this year except Copa del Rey.

They are lining up their main XI today vs Barça at the Madrigal...

Comments
tiki_taka 10 years ago Edited
Barcelona, France 367 9768

He is not a Barça fan, but let him do his things... Didnt watched a single game of them except Villareal, and is probably a Chelsea fan, but thats not important, nothing is important in a Forum of Football...

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  • History
Showing previous versions of this text.

He is not a Barça fan, but let him do his things...

tuan_jinn 10 years ago
Manchester United, Netherlands 198 6912

@lio: please watch-out mate, you seem to be not a real Barca's fans... recently since I have noticed you never really seem to support your team (only bashing them/players, negative remarks). What the hell?

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liomessi10 10 years ago
Barcelona, Argentina 222 3053

@tiki i didnt watch villareal game actually. only game i watched was granada game coz it was in good time, and i wanted to watch clasico but i got timing wrong and missed it

@tuan i am a barca anyway but when i predict we will win win we always lose. i predicted we would thrash bayern 5-0 in that second leg game and we lost 3-0 instead. learnt my lesson now. and with busquets i dont think too much of him and pedro hardly scores goals, and when he does it's just tap-ins. munir and sandro were easily better than him

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rayrex7 10 years ago
Real Madrid, Croatia 26 797

@lio you should predict a win no matter what. If I was an elche fan and we are facing a team with ronaldo and messi in it, I would say 5-0 for elche, delusional right, but ffs it's football that's the experience you get and the passion of the game, no matter how many times you get a wrong prediction support your team no matter what the cause is.

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liomessi10 10 years ago
Barcelona, Argentina 222 3053

^but i'd rather i predict bad results and get good results than i predict good results and get bad ones

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tuan_jinn 10 years ago
Manchester United, Netherlands 198 6912

Ok mate, sometimes I have the same feeling.. but at least Im being quite reasonable epsecially when giving my prediction on public. Like @rayrex7 said... that's why you support your team, cheering them etc... this is not silent love with a chick and being sarcrificed or something right?

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