Hi, lots of my mates & even many commentators/pundits etc are saying that taking penalties/penalty shootouts are pure luck. I'm going to just show my point of view of it.

Personally I'm totally against that 'theory'. I just think that if penalties are about 'luck' then I guess the whole football is about luck and why'd you even bother to watch/play it then.

If taking shots from 11m is about luck, then isn't every 1v1 situation vs goalkeeper inside game just about pure luck? With that logic professional football players aren't any better than any other "normal" human, they just have got endless luck. This is starting to sound really ridiculous.
Why for example Balotelli & C.Ronaldo have got great penalty records then? They barely miss penalties. Why does Germany have great record in penalty shootouts?

My logic is that penalties are due to these things:
-Your mind. For example Tim Krul vs Costa Rica, he totally went inside the players' minds. Even without keepers playing, some players do crack under HIGH pressure that big competitions do create. The cooler mind, the better.
-Technique. There are many styles to take pens .. Finesse shots, power shots, Balotelli style (stopping just before to see what GK does) etc. I also believe that players that have better kicking techniques, have better chance to score.
-Consistency. What comes PURELY from training penalties and shots. One of the most obvious things that ppl still don't understand. If you shoot 100 times for example to right top corner hard. You have a lot better chance to do the same in match, which is REALLY hard for GK to save.

Would like to hear your opinion :-)

In my opinion its a balance between skill (of both the goalkeeper and the player shooting), mental state of both mentioned earlier, and luck.

For the outfield players taking the penalties its all skill. 100% Skill. As for the keepers, guessing is luck, however some great keepers can just rely on their skill to save shots.

I agree with all that is said here...some luck and some science. If you look at Krull yesterday, he studied the players. He went the correct way all 5 times. I wouldn't say that is luck. But usually, there is some probability in going the correct direction, but studying the players' techniques will make the odds in your favour instead of a coin flip chance...

Penalties have as much luck involved as regular plays... Keepers nowadays dont choose the side they are going to dive to randomly, they try to guess based on many factors but still by getting the side right doesn't guaranty a save. Penalties are no luck game, there is more skill involved and specially mental skills.

It's a battle between knowledge and skills when it comes to penalties. In these modern times, almost all goalkeepers study their opponents if the upcoming match could be decided by penalties. For example, Cech in 2012 vs Bayern - or Krul vs Costa Rica. On the other hand, outfield players need to know how to properly finish, handle pressure, and deal with mind games.

tl;dr: Penalties are a mentally gruesome and very strategic game in which only those with skill, knowledge and confidence should participate.

Luck and technique are equally important. You have to be lucky the goalkeeper doesn't go your way, and you have to put in high or in a corner regardless of which direction the goalkeeper goes. This will maximize your chances of scoring.

I don't believe it is luck . It is a mind game between penalty taker and goalkeeper . There is so much involved that we miss when watching the match on TV or in the stands. @vendeta said everything I wanted to say . All i want to add is that consistency can be mastered . For example retired veteran Roberto Baggio never missed a penalty until World Cup final of 1994. His Secret ? ALWAYS PRACTICED IT .

Yeah, agree. I think, people mis-associate with luck because the weaker team has almost equal chance to win as the better one. Of course if you practice it's hard enough you will have advantage, even that's debatable.

So, that's why it's luck.

This has been a discussion for a long time. Like the Dutch has this penalty curse for years, they just suck at Penalties. Until this year though.

in my opinion, like others said, penalties are a matter of cold blood and clinicality, with a pinch of luck. those who say that pens are pure luck, might have suffered a related trauma.

If I may put this again here? Now that I saw the discussion in Real Madrid UCL win thread.

Eden was correct. The skill required off an outfield player to score is just that, a skill. One you can practice, perfect, and hopefully step up when the time comes.

However, for the keeper, it's a total crapshoot. You can try to pick up hints of where the shooter is going through shoulder drops, foot angles, the plant food hint, but as we saw in the final with Oblak, if the shooters are good enough you end up flapping in the middle of the goal like an idiot. Poor kid would have been better off straight guessing, then maybe he would've gotten one of them right.

Most keepers accept that the move they make on the shot is at best an educated guess. If the ball comes anywhere near that move, then it becomes skill. But it's nothing more than a guess that got us to that point.

Luck in penalties is all about the GK to guess the ball's direction. The others are all technical.
If you want to watch technique in Penalties, you can watch Beşiktaş' penalty kicks against Liverpool.

Neither Navas nor Oblak managed to touch the ball through 9 penalties. It's entirely luck for the goalkeeper.

If you shoot the penalty right, no goalkeeper has any chance. And say what you want..

^ what if you shoot left :D

^ Juanfran decided to shoot left...

We all agreed it has to do with luck but it is not entirely about luck. I would say it involves less luck than playing blackjack and a little bit more luck than taking a free-kick.

The most important factor is probably the mental state of the player. Nerves could make you miss without a keeper on goal.

In the final the keepers had their own ways, they chose to dive almost every time to the same side hoping one would fell for it. It is all a mental game. But the takers did great and that penalty shootout was a masterclass.