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Five factors that contribute to which team wins the Champions League
Marcus2011 10 years ago Edited
Chelsea FC, England 277 6501

It was one of the competition's great historians, Brian Glanville, who typically had a spot-on description of the old European Cup: "an inspired paradox", he called it.Although the competition was specifically designed to crown the best team on the continent, that is something the European Cup has never been able to ensure.

The trophy is only sometimes lifted by the best side. Because, unlike a league, it is just not structured that way. It doesn't allow "reality" to assert itself over the long term. A single bad match can destroy an entire campaign, a single freakish moment can forge an unlikely victory.These are characteristics that only become more pronounced with the competition's 1999 expansion. Since then, arguably only six of 15 winners have been the obvious best team in that given season. Seven champions, after all, couldn't even finish in the top two of their domestic leagues that year.

RECENT CHAMPIONS LEAGUE WINNERS2013-14: Real Madrid
2012-13: Bayern Munich
2011-12: Chelsea
2010-11: Barcelona
2009-10: Inter Milan
2008-09: Barcelona
2007-08: Manchester United
2006-07: AC Milan
2005-06: Barcelona
2004-05: Liverpool

As Jose Mourinho said earlier this season, "a knock-out competition is something that always has a big percentage of unpredictability". As Bayern Munich's Karl-Heinz Rummenigge said the year before, "it is a competition where there are no guarantees and the things you take for granted in domestic football don't always work".So, how do you get closest to any guarantees? How does a club get the Champions League's specific characteristics to work in their favour? And, in a competition where those with the best quality don't always win, what are the best attributes you can have?Be tactically astute enough to have three systems

As the only man in the modern game to have played under four Champions League-winning managers, Xabi Alonso was asked by old teammate Jamie Carragher what was so distinctive about each of them. The Bayern Munich midfielder, who can now add Pep Guardiola to a list of former bosses that includes Mourinho, Carlo Ancelotti and Rafa Benitez, actually pointed to one shared quality.

"[They're] comfortable playing with three systems. [Teams] need to adapt to each game, depending on the circumstances," said Alonso.

The circumstances of Champions League football remain exceptionally nuanced, despite the ongoing globalisation of the game. Gary Neville has always pointed to how "different the subtleties and concentration are". The very traits of a two-legged tie, and the shadow of the away goal, further exaggerate this, as well as the need for the tactical nous to navigate them.

There are probably no better examples than Liverpool's elimination of Mourinho's Chelsea in 2005, or Mourinho's own defeat of Barcelona with Internazionale five years later. In both cases, there was one obviously superior team, with Chelsea proving that by so regularly defeating Liverpool domestically.

In both cases, however, there were two managers who levelled the field through shrewd shuffling of approach and the most meticulously perceptive preparation. Against Chelsea, Benitez and Liverpool pushed their defensive lineup three quarters, played the offside trap to prevent penetrating balls and had Milan Baros run the channels. Against Barca, Mourinho's Inter unleashed the ultimate counter-attacking game in the first leg, which allowed his team to deploy the ultimate defensive game in the second.

Then there's Guardiola himself, who is perhaps the most intense micro-manager in the game, while Ancelotti won the 2007 trophy by alternating in and out of Milan's "Christmas Tree" formation. In an era when the abilities of the super-clubs aren't that different, tactical variation can make the difference.Blind luckIt may be something that goes against the historic gravitas of the competition, but there are no two ways about it: the reality is blind luck has played a huge part in some of its most historic victories. Even a manager as concerned with trying to control every little detail as Mourinho can't discount the influence of uncontrollable fortune."To win the Champions League, you have to have luck at a certain moment, like Barcelona in 1992 in Kaiserslautern or Porto [in 2004 against Manchester United]."

You can add many more teams to that, from United in 1999 to
Barcelona 2009, Inter 2010 and so many others. Like those five, basically every
single champion benefitted from a favourable last-minute bounce of the ball, a
big decision unexpectedly going their way, or a huge opposition chance falling
to the wrong player at the wrong moment.

Those same sides may of course have gone on to maximise the
consequences of that luck through their own quality, but there's no denying the
effect simple fortune has along the way. It's what really separates the
Champions League from a domestic campaign. One unbelievable moment can mean
sudden death, or a feeling of new life.

One individual in rare
cup form

Raul and the rest of the Galacticos may have become the defining
figures in Real Madrid's three Champions Leagues at the turn of the millennium,
but they might not have claimed that key second title without one player who
was virtually ridiculed. There were no jokes about Nicolas Anelka, however, in
the last three games of 1999-2000. Having performed dismally for Real up to
then, he suddenly exploded by scoring in both legs of the semifinal against
Bayern Munich, and then inventively setting up Fernando Morientes for the
opening goal of the final against Valencia.

He was the game-breaker when so many others were toiling, his
burst all the more effective because it had been unexpected. There are many
similar examples, from Giovane Elber hitting three in the last four games of
the next season for Bayern, to Luis Garcia's five in six for Liverpool during
the 2005 knockouts.

Great individual effort can tie into a club's ultimate fortune, something Arsene Wenger has been conscious of in the past. He mentioned the importance of this just a few months after Chelsea had claimed the Champions League in 2012, despite finishing sixth in the league."One of the lucks they had was [Didier] Drogba, in the first part of the season, he didn't play a lot," said Wenger. "He came into it in the second part of the season. He was fresh, focused, had a good rest and was still hungry to make it happen and he did."

Again, it directly ties into the short-term nature of the competition, and how isolated incidents can have a widespread effect. It even applies to the finest teams and players. Barca won it with Leo Messi unstoppable, United did the same with Cristiano Ronaldo, and Milan's 2007 victory coincided with Kaka's finest ever season. Favourable league circumstancesWhen you look at the list of Champions League winners since the 1999 expansion, there's a rather distinctive and defined split. Eight of the champions were also domestic champions those seasons, the other six are a series of teams who finished third or lower and well outside the title race. There's surprisingly no in-between, no second-place domestic finishes. It's almost as if a team has to be good enough to persevere on multiple fronts, or, in short, limited enough to mean they can save all their energies for European games.

Liverpool finished fifth in the 2004-05 Premier League table, some 37 points adrift of winners Chelsea, yet they hoisted the Champions League trophy that same season.

Carlo Ancelotti explained exactly the latter process for Milan's win in 2002-03: "We had lost our determination in Serie A, so our focus was now on the Champions League." The same applied with Liverpool 2005, Chelsea 2012 and you could even argue Real Madrid 2014, given how they fell away domestically.On the other side, it is as if consistent winning across all fronts can further propel the best sides rather than exhaust them, they they develop a rampaging rhythm. Many of United's 1999 team described that feeling from the treble, and it was almost identical with Inter in 2010.

The right psychologyWhen the Chelsea squad were asked during interviews for a documentary what the root factor in their 2012 win was, many were initially stumped. There were a few moments of silence with each of them, before blowing out their cheeks and putting it down to "fate" or "destiny".So many champions have said something similar, or a belief that just coursed through the team, a unique psychology that was fostered.That may sound like a frustratingly vague intangible, but the reality is that the very feeling can have tangible effects. If players have that rare belief that fortune is on their side, it can cause them to enter challenges more fully, to play with more conviction. That again can have multiplying effects. In many ways, it is the ingredient that can bring the others together.

6
  • History
Showing previous versions of this text.

It was one of the competition's great historians, Brian Glanville, who typically had a spot-on description of the old European Cup: "an inspired paradox", he called it.

Although the competition was specifically designed to crown the best team on the continent, that is something the European Cup has never been able to ensure. The trophy is only sometimes lifted by the best side. Because, unlike a league, it is just not structured that way. It doesn't allow "reality" to assert itself over the long term. A single bad match can destroy an entire campaign, a single freakish moment can forge an unlikely victory.

These are characteristics that only become more pronounced with the competition's 1999 expansion. Since then, arguably only six of 15 winners have been the obvious best team in that given season. Seven champions, after all, couldn't even finish in the top two of their domestic leagues that year.

RECENT CHAMPIONS LEAGUE WINNERS2013-14: Real Madrid
2012-13: Bayern Munich
2011-12: Chelsea
2010-11: Barcelona
2009-10: Inter Milan
2008-09: Barcelona
2007-08: Manchester United
2006-07: AC Milan
2005-06: Barcelona
2004-05: Liverpool

As Jose Mourinho said earlier this season, "a knock-out competition is something that always has a big percentage of unpredictability". As Bayern Munich's Karl-Heinz Rummenigge said the year before, "it is a competition where there are no guarantees and the things you take for granted in domestic football don't always work".

So, how do you get closest to any guarantees? How does a club get the Champions League's specific characteristics to work in their favour? And, in a competition where those with the best quality don't always win, what are the best attributes you can have?

Be tactically astute enough to have three systems

As the only man in the modern game to have played under four Champions League-winning managers, Xabi Alonso was asked by old teammate Jamie Carragher what was so distinctive about each of them. The Bayern Munich midfielder, who can now add Pep Guardiola to a list of former bosses that includes Mourinho, Carlo Ancelotti and Rafa Benitez, actually pointed to one shared quality.

"[They're] comfortable playing with three systems. [Teams] need to adapt to each game, depending on the circumstances," said Alonso.

The circumstances of Champions League football remain exceptionally nuanced, despite the ongoing globalisation of the game. Gary Neville has always pointed to how "different the subtleties and concentration are". The very traits of a two-legged tie, and the shadow of the away goal, further exaggerate this, as well as the need for the tactical nous to navigate them.

There are probably no better examples than Liverpool's elimination of Mourinho's Chelsea in 2005, or Mourinho's own defeat of Barcelona with Internazionale five years later. In both cases, there was one obviously superior team, with Chelsea proving that by so regularly defeating Liverpool domestically.

In both cases, however, there were two managers who levelled the field through shrewd shuffling of approach and the most meticulously perceptive preparation. Against Chelsea, Benitez and Liverpool pushed their defensive lineup three quarters, played the offside trap to prevent penetrating balls and had Milan Baros run the channels. Against Barca, Mourinho's Inter unleashed the ultimate counter-attacking game in the first leg, which allowed his team to deploy the ultimate defensive game in the second.

Then there's Guardiola himself, who is perhaps the most intense micro-manager in the game, while Ancelotti won the 2007 trophy by alternating in and out of Milan's "Christmas Tree" formation. In an era when the abilities of the super-clubs aren't that different, tactical variation can make the difference.

Blind luckIt may be something that goes against the historic gravitas of the competition, but there are no two ways about it: the reality is blind luck has played a huge part in some of its most historic victories. Even a manager as concerned with trying to control every little detail as Mourinho can't discount the influence of uncontrollable fortune.

"To win the Champions League, you have to have luck at a certain moment, like Barcelona in 1992 in Kaiserslautern or Porto [in 2004 against Manchester United]."

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You can add many more teams to that, from United in 1999 to
Barcelona 2009, Inter 2010 and so many others. Like those five, basically every
single champion benefitted from a favourable last-minute bounce of the ball, a
big decision unexpectedly going their way, or a huge opposition chance falling
to the wrong player at the wrong moment.

Those same sides may of course have gone on to maximise the
consequences of that luck through their own quality, but there's no denying the
effect simple fortune has along the way. It's what really separates the
Champions League from a domestic campaign. One unbelievable moment can mean
sudden death, or a feeling of new life.

One individual in rare
cup form

Raul and the rest of the Galacticos may have become the defining
figures in Real Madrid's three Champions Leagues at the turn of the millennium,
but they might not have claimed that key second title without one player who
was virtually ridiculed. There were no jokes about Nicolas Anelka, however, in
the last three games of 1999-2000. Having performed dismally for Real up to
then, he suddenly exploded by scoring in both legs of the semifinal against
Bayern Munich, and then inventively setting up Fernando Morientes for the
opening goal of the final against Valencia.

He was the game-breaker when so many others were toiling, his
burst all the more effective because it had been unexpected. There are many
similar examples, from Giovane Elber hitting three in the last four games of
the next season for Bayern, to Luis Garcia's five in six for Liverpool during
the 2005 knockouts.

Great individual effort can tie into a club's ultimate fortune, something Arsene Wenger has been conscious of in the past. He mentioned the importance of this just a few months after Chelsea had claimed the Champions League in 2012, despite finishing sixth in the league.

"One of the lucks they had was [Didier] Drogba, in the first part of the season, he didn't play a lot," said Wenger. "He came into it in the second part of the season. He was fresh, focused, had a good rest and was still hungry to make it happen and he did."

Again, it directly ties into the short-term nature of the competition, and how isolated incidents can have a widespread effect. It even applies to the finest teams and players. Barca won it with Leo Messi unstoppable, United did the same with Cristiano Ronaldo, and Milan's 2007 victory coincided with Kaka's finest ever season.

Favourable league circumstancesWhen you look at the list of Champions League winners since the 1999 expansion, there's a rather distinctive and defined split. Eight of the champions were also domestic champions those seasons, the other six are a series of teams who finished third or lower and well outside the title race. There's surprisingly no in-between, no second-place domestic finishes. It's almost as if a team has to be good enough to persevere on multiple fronts, or, in short, limited enough to mean they can save all their energies for European games.

Liverpool finished fifth in the 2004-05 Premier League table, some 37 points adrift of winners Chelsea, yet they hoisted the Champions League trophy that same season.

Carlo Ancelotti explained exactly the latter process for Milan's win in 2002-03: "We had lost our determination in Serie A, so our focus was now on the Champions League." The same applied with Liverpool 2005, Chelsea 2012 and you could even argue Real Madrid 2014, given how they fell away domestically.

On the other side, it is as if consistent winning across all fronts can further propel the best sides rather than exhaust them, they they develop a rampaging rhythm. Many of United's 1999 team described that feeling from the treble, and it was almost identical with Inter in 2010.

The right psychologyWhen the Chelsea squad were asked during interviews for a documentary what the root factor in their 2012 win was, many were initially stumped. There were a few moments of silence with each of them, before blowing out their cheeks and putting it down to "fate" or "destiny".

So many champions have said something similar, or a belief that just coursed through the team, a unique psychology that was fostered.

That may sound like a frustratingly vague intangible, but the reality is that the very feeling can have tangible effects. If players have that rare belief that fortune is on their side, it can cause them to enter challenges more fully, to play with more conviction. That again can have multiplying effects. In many ways, it is the ingredient that can bring the others together.

Comments
RealMadrid17 10 years ago
Real Madrid 20 755

Great article! Thanks for posting! +1

0
CroatiaFan123 10 years ago
Arsenal, Croatia 66 2775

Great post mate! Mostly agree with everything.

0