As Roma - Porto

Monaco - Villareal

Well well well, only games going to watch others may be exciting. Villareal coach just left 2 days ago bad sign for the yellow submarines, guess he got issues with his direction on signing players. Monaco not really in good shape either.
Roma should win ultimately if Italy wants to reconquer the 4th place Cl spot, PL followers should be routing for Porto, understandable. City to qualify without problem.

Some easy games to bet on with interesting odds except the two games I listed above.

I heard that Marcelino didn't actually left Villareal. Instead, Villareal were the ones that sacked him because they want to bring Pellegrini back. WTF Villareal? Bad move.

If that's true. Indeed, quite a bad timing move

I hate UEFA for dividing elimination rounds as Champions Route and League Route. One of the most stupid decisions imo. About the games; I believe that Porto can beat Roma and Villareal can eliminate Monaco. Monaco are in a very bad shape. They were very lucky in 3rd Round otherwise they were already out for Europe League.

Is it that stupid though^? I mean it makes sense that a team like City (4th placed team in a league ranked 3rd in UEFA coefficients) comes in at the play-offs. I feel it increases the chances of having underdogs in the group stages. Let's say that FC Köpenhamn would be scheduled to face them otherwise.. Guessing Denmark is ranked around 20ish in the UEFA coefficient, meaning that they entered the competition in qualifying round 2, and thus had to win 2 games before reaching the play-offs.. It would be a shame if they got to meet Man City there.. when they won their league.. won 2 games in the qualification rounds.. while City came 4th in their league and didn't win anything at all.. Just my 2 cents on it!

Ludogorets, Celtic, FC Köpenhamn, Legia Warzawa, Dinamo Zagreb, City, Porto, Ajax, Borussia, Villareal to go through..

@tiki Monaco - Villareal is gonna be interesting for sure, the team I will be rooting for depend if Pato play for Villareal, because if he doesn't, then you can be sure I'm rooting for Monaco. ;)

Ajax vs Rostov should also be interesting, I mean, Rostov were this close to pull a Leicester last year, so they could cause a suprise and take out Ajax. I don' expect them to go far though even if they manage to do that. Porto and Roma is gonna be a good game as well.

@KTBFFHSWE I understand your point. But still, I believe that the better teams should be in the group stage then the others.
For example it is unfair that the two of the Porto-Roma-Villareal-Monaco teams will be out instead of Celtic-BeerSheva-ViktoriaPlzen or Ludogorets. It's very important Financially for the bigger teams. Another example; I wouldn't want to see Fenerbahçe-Monaco in 3rd Round of Champions League. I mean they were the biggest teams in 3rd round but one of them got eliminated. It's kinda stupid.

@Emrecan Agreed, its too bad Fernebahce got eliminated so soon in the competition. I'm happy for Monaco though, they made an impressive comeback.

@emre Not sure I agree, though. Monaco came 3rd in their league, miles behind PSG, without impressing at all, which is the reason they got to play the 3rd QL round too, to advance to the play-offs. I mean it could just as well have been Lille that Fenerbache would get to met there, which would seem fair..

Celtic on the other hand, won their league convincingly and won the 2 games in the QL rounds to get there. And they still have to win in the play-offs too. Seems fair to me, although I did take the example that suited my case the best. Not super excited to see some of the other teams in CL either.. and I guess there would be underdogs too even if there wouldn't be 2 different routes to go..

Just for fun, it would be interesting to compare the standard of the teams in the different routes. Something like this..

City (League)
Porto (League)
Roma (League)
Villareal (League)
Borussia (League)
Monaco (League)
Ajax (Champions)
Dinamo Zagreb (Champions)
FC Salzburg (Champions)
Celtic (Champions)
FC Köpenhamn (Champions)
Steua Bucarest (League)
BSC Young boys (League)
Ludogorets (Champions)
Apoel (Champions)
Legia Warzawa (Champions)
Hapoel (Champions)
Dundalk FC (Champions)
FC Rostov (League)
FC Viktoria (Champions)

I mean, not all league route teams are better than the champions route.. all though the top teams clearly are..

Villareal may appear in that rank on paper, on the pitch they are dangerous took points from Barca/Madrid And Atletico, eleminated Napoli, lost to Liverpool by giving a fight despite short depth And poor end of the season. Comparing to what Roma offered against BArca ( 6-1) or the 0 pts taken on Napoli/Madrid I would rate Villareal above Roma, an unknown name like Éric Bailly with visibility may turn into a star just because he is watched more than usual, submarines have plenty of these talented players. The loss of Denis Suarez is big but Roma lost Pjanic. anyway now without a coach it may be different but I would put Submarines on same level than Porto, even if they could beat Napoli over 180 min, Napoli are more consistent. But then thats Villareal of last year im talking about, I guess Monaco is screwed.

Thats on a personal comparison about level that Kbffh has well classified it, maybe the fact They are outshined by Spanish monster teams may play a big role ( And the budget ).

For the sacking I think thats a bad move, give a team in trouble with many youngsters ( talented but inexperimented ) do an amazing first half of a season being undefeated at home, reaching 4th place spot And semi finals of EL with limited depth, then sack manager. Doesnt make sense for me its like sacking Ranieri by Leicester after this season, would Pellegrini do a better work ? He usually succeed with Spanish teams took Malaga to CL quarters with Isco but still the standards set by the ex coach are quite complicated to achieve.

Monaco has a cheezy defense, Carvalho quit a 38 yo and I'm not fan of Raggi and Glik and Fabinho will probably move to a better club, but Some individuals may save them, I doubt it because They hardly play as a team And they usually struggle agaisnt tactical teams. Betting for a win in Madrigal but waiting for the possible line ups, I doubt Pato Will be that consistent.

Important game for both, Monaco desperatly need CL to sell players with the visibility of that cup, ligue 1 is not enough. And I think Villareal would be glad to cash in some extra money for midterm stability, Cashed in Bailly And didnt spend much. Crucial game for both Clubs, grabbing pop corn on this game.

For the same reason Porto will do anything to get through, a player who perform in CL see his price skyrocketting, his wages too. But Romans have big names that dream of CL, Porto to get through here.

As everyone said, a pitty that half of those teams with big names will be eliminated while some average teams will get through. But When you see Atletico Madrid on Pot 3 City on pot 4 while the winner of Eredivise or Portugal is in Pot 1, there Will be group of death And outrageously easy groups, that makes draws exciting despite being unfair. I think no one appreciates the new format.

I would have ranked Villareal higher hadn't it been for the sacking of Marcelino and since they sold off half the team it feels like. But fine, above Roma then, and on pair with Porto.

And I also dislike the new format after group stages.. That's way more unfair than the different routes to the group stages.

I agree, sadly thats the case of Sevilla and Villareal each year. incredible ability to build up a strong team and make players progress, make results, sell half of the team, repeat.
Well Sevilla paid it cash last year with their poor start of the season, but then they always manage to win EL with different names : lost Bacca, Rakitic, Alex Vidal, Fazio, Aspas, Mbia past 2 years. this year rhey lost Banega, Coke, Kryshowiack, Llorente, Gameiro until now, if they manage to build a strong team with cheap buys and win EL without Unai Emery i will be shocked. They have a wizard not a sportive director. ( Almost defeated Real Madrid who looks dangerous even without BBC )
Villareal well same story : many cashes in, many scouting and they manage to build something in short time and compete with it : Gaspar, Uche, Cani, Oliver Torres( atletico), Gabriel Paulista( arsenal), Luciano Vietto( atletico), Denis Cheryshev( real madrid). and this year they lost Eric Bailly( manchester united), Leo Baptistao( Atletico), Adrian( FC Porto), Denis Suarez ( barcelona ), Areola ( PSG) and may probably sell Bakambu if someone put a a good bid, they always came back stronger. I dont see how they cant repeat it they have building experience.

Imagine if these teams werent in the mood of selling and instead were having 80M budget to spend ? The concept of overachieving and underachieving is what im talking about when i see healthy clubs with lower results.

You' re absolutely right wait to see if they manage to re-build, and even if not, Bilbao ended on fire last year, with Maybe a Valencian wake up with Nani and other talented youngsters. Vigo lost Nolito but had some promising talents like Orelliana and a good 9 from Ligue 1 Claudio Beauvue and Aspas back in form...the Japanese Kyotake looks promising and Ben Yedder both from Toulouse is sure value of Ligue 1 with 15 goals per season, Villareal signed Pato, got Carriço a player i like, Bakambu-Soldado up front and they kept Bruno Soriano, Mina and co, Eric Bailly departure wont affect them, Denis Suarez will because he was decisive up front.

All these teams suffer from departures but some teams and Specially Sevilla/Villareal rebuild fast. big guns in Spain are lucky to see these clubs loosing stability, because they have everything to have a sportive Rise like Atletico Madrid one who no longer are obliged to sell and made a name in Europe that make them attractive without paying big wages. If we put a list of what Valencia sold or Atletico Madrid sold only in strikers, thats shocking ( Forlan,Aguero, Torres, Falcao, Costa ). The question is could they keep Griezmann out of the incredible wages offered, if he was greedy he would have gone this summer.

I cant say i want them to be wealthy and grap trophies, but these teams by the huge work they are doing each year deserve respect, no matter how much they get in TV income, they are obliged to sell, they are used to it, and highly outshined by top 2, because when Atleti defeats them its by one goal margin. Thats why as a liga betting player, level follower when i hear there is no team in la liga i go mad, where do people think big clubs buy their players from. And most of it, going to Mestalla, Madrigal, San Mames, or Pijuan stadiumis a hard task for anyteam in europe, first team to defeat Sevilla in Europe at Pijuan for 3 years was City last year start of the season, no team defeated Villareal at Madrigal in Europe, Madrid lost, Atletico drew, Barça lost or drew, Liverpool lost, Napoli lost...

Went off topic but all this to say that small budget doesnt make you a looser team, and big budget doest garanteeyou success if the management of the squad is clueless, if youhave the ability to build a compact strong squad, with healthy athmosphere and no issues in the dressingroom, money or players names doesnt have a big impact.

Back to topic the reason i think Monaco is screwed, Monaco is a bunch of players playing to be seen and sold, all have this ambition. Villareal is a compact tactical team quite impossible to beat at home. Porto has the same kind of values, strenght and scouting skills.

(we can stay off topic if you want to speculate on the future level Villareal will have with all the sales,good place for Pato to think just about Football and forget night clubs, but could he stay consistent ? idk)

Good points guys.

In general I agree with what @Emerecan said. We are talking about fairness, but in the end that's not enough.

Big teams, brings big crowd for a reason... Of course we want diversity as well, but only to a certain extend, if they can beat those big guys! then yeah!!!

@tuan_jinn Fair enough. ;)