The expanded World Cup was supposed to create more drama and more meaningful matches. Instead, it may have revived one of tournament football’s oldest problems: games where neither team has much reason to win. The new format sends the eight best third-placed teams into the knockout stage. While the system has been used before at World Cups and recently at the European Championship, it creates situations where a draw becomes the optimal result for both sides.
Bookmakers have already noticed. Ahead of the final round of group-stage fixtures, three matches have draws priced as the most likely outcome — something that is extremely rare in football. The average draw price is usually around 3.30, yet Paraguay vs Australia is sitting at 2.10, Algeria vs Austria at 2.24, and Egypt vs Iran at 2.65. These are not allegations of match-fixing. Tournament football has always had a simple reality: when both teams benefit from the same result, that result becomes significantly more likely.
Group D provides the clearest example. The United States secured first place early after victories over Paraguay and Australia, while Turkey lost to both rivals and cannot move off the bottom because of head-to-head results. That leaves Paraguay and Australia in a position where a draw would move both sides to four points. Under the current format, four points virtually guarantees qualification as one of the best third-placed teams, with projections putting the probability at roughly 99.8 percent. The betting market has reacted accordingly, making a draw more likely than a win for either side.
The same logic applies elsewhere. Egypt and Iran can improve their chances of progressing without taking major risks, while Algeria and Austria face a similarly comfortable scenario. FIFA expanded the World Cup to keep more nations alive for longer, and in many ways it has succeeded. But there is an obvious downside. When third place can be enough, some teams stop chasing victory and start protecting a result. The consequence is a World Cup where, on certain nights, the smartest strategy may be not to win at all.
Published by Patrick Jane
24.06.2026