Yamal, Dembele, Raphinha
Who Will Win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Yamal, Dembele, Raphinha, or a Surprise Candidate?

The race for the 2025 Ballon d’Or is heating up. While the official winner will be announced on September 22, nearly all major tournaments for the season have concluded, giving us a strong idea of the leading contenders. Although the evaluation period officially runs until July 31, 2025, only the Club World Cup remains — and it's unlikely to shift the narrative dramatically, even if Kylian Mbappé scores a hat-trick in the final.

So who stands out?

The Front-Runners: Dembele and Yamal Lead the Way

Current betting odds suggest a tight race between Ousmane Dembele and Lamine Yamal. Both have had stellar seasons:

  • Dembele was the star man for Paris Saint-Germain, winning a historic quadruple: Ligue 1, Champions League, Coupe de France, and the French Super Cup.
  • Yamal has been a revelation for Barcelona, dazzling fans with goals and creativity throughout the campaign.

The odds from one major bookmaker list the favorites as follows:

  • 1.76 – Ousmane Dembele (France, PSG)
  • 2.52 – Lamine Yamal (Spain, Barcelona)
  • 27 – Kylian Mbappé (France, Real Madrid)
  • 29 – Mohamed Salah (Egypt, Liverpool)
  • 55 – Raphinha (Brazil, Barcelona)
  • 70 – Vitinha (Portugal, PSG)
  • 90 – Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Georgia, PSG)
  • 120 – Pedri (Spain, Barcelona)

Note: These odds are still volatile — betting volumes are low, and the final push of the season could influence perceptions.

Raphinha’s Case: The Underrated Star of the Season?

While Dembele and Yamal dominate the headlines, Raphinha has quietly built a Ballon d’Or-worthy resume. Playing out of position for much of the season, he still led Barcelona in both goals and assists across key competitions:

  • 21 goal contributions in the Champions League (best in the tournament, tied with Cristiano Ronaldo's record)
  • 10 goals + 18 assists in La Liga
  • Strong work rate off the ball — especially in contrast to Yamal

Statistically, Raphinha outperformed both Pedri and Yamal. Yet, the Brazilian remains an outsider in the award race.

Vitinha – The Midfield Maestro Who Won’t Win

Ballon d’Or voters rarely favor holding midfielders, and Vitinha is unlikely to break that pattern, despite an outstanding season. The Portuguese midfielder was PSG’s engine — controlling tempo, distributing under pressure, and defending with intelligence.

His Champions League stats are jaw-dropping:

  • 17 matches
  • 38 tackles/interceptions
  • Just 4 fouls and zero yellow cards

Still, history shows that defensive midfielders need an extraordinary narrative to win. Even Rodri, last year’s winner, was a rare exception.

Donnarumma’s Playoff Heroics – But League Form Hurts

If the Ballon d’Or were awarded based solely on the Champions League knockout rounds, Gianluigi Donnarumma would be a top candidate. His saves were pivotal in PSG's run to the title. But his Ligue 1 form was patchy:

  • 25 goals conceded vs 21.7 expected goals
  • Occasional competition from Matvei Safonov
  • One of the worst xG-over-performance stats among Ligue 1 goalkeepers

Such inconsistencies may cost him votes.

What Really Determines the Ballon d’Or?

The Ballon d’Or is awarded based on:

  • Individual performance – especially decisive and impressive moments
  • Team success – trophies and accomplishments
  • Class and fair play

In practice, winners often emerge from teams that win the Champions League or international tournaments. In fact, 13 of the last 18 Ballon d’Or winners lifted either the World Cup or UCL in their award-winning year.

This logic favors Dembele — PSG’s main attacking threat in a trophy-laden season.

Mbappé, Salah, and Pedri – Still in the Conversation?

  • Kylian Mbappé, now at Real Madrid, had a quieter season by his standards. Even with a Club World Cup performance, he’s unlikely to close the gap.
  • Mohamed Salah was excellent, but Liverpool's season lacked silverware.
  • Pedri and Gavi have their supporters — both players publicly campaigned for Pedri — but his stats (4 goals, 5 assists) lag behind Barcelona teammates.

Final Thoughts: Can Anyone Catch Dembele?

History tells us surprises are possible. Just last year, Vinicius Jr. was the favorite with odds as low as 1.22 days before the ceremony — only for Rodri to claim the award.

As things stand, the battle seems to be between Dembele and Yamal, with Raphinha as the dark horse. Still, three months is a long time in football, and narratives can shift rapidly.

Let the debate begin.

Published by Patrick Jane
14.06.2025