What to Expect from Viktor Gyökeres in the Premier League?

As Viktor Gyökeres makes the leap from Portugal to England, many fans are wondering: how will his scoring translate to the Premier League?

According to football analysts on X, forwards aged 18–23 tend to see a significant drop in scoring output when moving from the Portuguese Primeira Liga to the EPL. On average, their expected goals (xG) per match decrease by 0.11 – a notable dip, considering that anything above 0.3 xG per 90 minutes is considered a big scoring chance.

Gyökeres is 27 and at the peak of his career, so age-related regression isn’t an issue. Looking at his last two seasons in Portugal – while deliberately excluding his astronomical 1.13 xG/90 in the most recent campaign – Viktor averaged 0.84 xG per 90 minutes. Applying the model’s predicted drop, his Premier League xG should hover around 0.73 per 90 minutes, meaning his goal tally will largely depend on playing time.

In recent seasons, Gyökeres has averaged roughly 2,850 league minutes, which would project to around 23 Premier League goals, assuming he maintains his finishing efficiency.

Sounds impressive – and the model has a history of being spot on. It projected Erling Haaland to score between 25–27 goals after his move from the Bundesliga to Manchester City, and over multiple seasons, he landed exactly in that range. Kylian Mbappé’s numbers were also predicted almost perfectly from his first top-flight season.

If the model is right again, Premier League fans could be in for an exciting debut season from Viktor Gyökeres.

Published by Patrick Jane
31.07.2025