Tottenham or West Ham? One of Them Could Be Heading for Relegation

A few months ago, the idea of Tottenham Hotspur being involved in a relegation battle would have sounded ridiculous. Now it comes down to the final day. Spurs go into Sunday two points above West Ham United, knowing a win over Everton guarantees survival. A draw should also be enough because of their goal difference. But if Tottenham lose and West Ham beat Leeds United, things could get very ugly in North London.

History Is Against West Ham

Premier League history suggests teams rarely escape relegation on the final day.

According to Opta, clubs have survived from the bottom three in 39.1% of Premier League seasons overall, but it has happened only once in the last 15 years — when Leeds stayed up in 2022 and Burnley went down instead.

That is the kind of ending West Ham now need.

Tottenham Still Have a Huge Problem at Home

Results improved after Roberto De Zerbi arrived, but Tottenham’s home form remains one of the worst in the league.

Spurs have won only two home league matches all season and none since December. Even games they seemed to control ended badly. Against Brighton and Leeds, they dropped points after leading late in the match.

That is why fans have started joking about “Dr Tottenham” again — the team that somehow always helps struggling opponents recover.

Chelsea, Bournemouth and even West Ham all ended difficult runs against Spurs this season.

The Supercomputer Still Trusts Spurs

Opta’s supercomputer still expects Tottenham to survive.

After 10,000 simulations, West Ham were relegated in 85.5% of outcomes, while Spurs went down in only 14.5%.

Still, final-day football rarely feels logical.

One early goal, nervous fans inside the stadium and pressure on the players can change everything very quickly.

And right now, Tottenham supporters know that better than anyone.

Published by Patrick Jane
23.05.2026