The Season Is Almost Over, but the Ballon d’Or Race Is Still Wide Open. Who’s the Favorite Now?

Let’s break down where Mohamed Salah still has a chance — and who currently looks like the potential winner of the award.

The international break is a great time to pause and reflect on the Ballon d’Or race — not amid the emotions of big wins or losses, but in a calmer setting. Especially now that the dust has settled after Liverpool’s elimination by PSG. That clash may not have changed everything, but it shifted a lot. Salah seemed like the clear favorite, but then flopped in the Champions League Round of 16. After that, Liverpool also lost the League Cup final. So now, Salah looks set to finish the season with just one trophy — he’ll likely win the Premier League, but that alone may not be enough for the Ballon d’Or.

Salah also seems to be a victim of timing. Imagine if Liverpool had started the Premier League poorly, only to come back and win it against the odds, with Salah carrying the team through the final two-thirds of the season, scoring and assisting like crazy. That scenario would’ve given him a stronger shot. But now, there are two months left and he’s no longer in the thick of the action. The Premier League title no longer feels like a shock — it’s become expected.

If you check the bookmakers’ odds right now, Salah is no longer the favorite — he’s either second or third. The frontrunner is Raphinha, who leads the Champions League this season in combined goals and assists (11+5). The Brazilian has been incredibly valuable for Barcelona on both ends of the pitch, even while playing out of position — his usual right-wing spot has been taken over by Yamal, another top Ballon d’Or contender, currently among the top five candidates.

Also in the mix is the ever-intelligent Pedri, who continues to impress with his vision and football IQ. In the past, it was hard to imagine players like him winning the Ballon d’Or because “goals + assists” seemed like the only things that mattered. But after Rodri’s recent win, it’s clear that smart midfielders are finally being recognized alongside prolific forwards. Interestingly, several Barcelona players — like Gavi and Ferran Torres — have openly said that Pedri deserves the award. But this could actually hurt the Catalans: with so many legitimate contenders on the same team, pro-Barcelona votes might get split.

Ultimately, titles are the key factor. It’s not just about who played the best football, but who was the best player on the team that won the biggest trophies. This isn’t a hard rule, but the trend is clear: 13 of the last 18 Ballon d’Or winners also won either the Champions League or the World Cup in the same year. National teams aren’t a factor this time — 2025 has no major international tournaments — but the Champions League will be huge. Especially if the winner also claims their domestic league title.

If Real Madrid win both La Liga and the Champions League, the Ballon d’Or will almost certainly go to Kylian Mbappé. If Bayern take both titles, Harry Kane is the likely winner. If PSG win it all, the award may go to Ousmane Dembélé. For Salah to have a real chance, we’d need a surprise winner — like Borussia Dortmund or maybe even Aston Villa — taking the Champions League.

The upcoming Club World Cup in June–July could also play a role, as it’s officially part of the 2024/25 season. Barcelona and Liverpool won’t be there, but Real Madrid, Bayern, and PSG will. There’s also Inter, who are in the hunt for all major trophies: they lead Serie A, reached the Champions League quarterfinals, are in the Coppa Italia semifinals, and will play in the Club World Cup. But Inter currently lack a standout star who clearly outshines his teammates.

As things stand, one thing is clear: after Messi won the Ballon d’Or at Inter Miami and Rodri followed from Manchester City, the Spanish clubs are back in charge. Right now, the top contenders are players from Barcelona and Real Madrid.

Published by Patrick Jane
25.03.2025