Manchester City on the Brink. Who Will Survive the Final Round of the Champions League?

Thanks to the tournament's updated regulations, the fate of the general stage will be decided at the very last moment.

The Champions League is nearing the end of its general stage, and the standings are beginning to take their final shape. Teams have settled into their positions, and their fate is becoming more apparent. Let’s break down who has already secured a spot in the playoffs, who still has a chance, and for whom the battle is over.

Tournament Leaders

Liverpool is at the top of the table. The team remains undefeated, winning all seven matches with an impressive goal difference of 15:2 and securing a place in the Round of 16. Many experts already consider the Reds the top contenders for the title. If they succeed, Arne Slot will become the first head coach since Zinedine Zidane to win the top European trophy in his debut season at the club.

Barcelona has also secured progression to the next stage. The Catalans have accumulated 18 points, suffering just one defeat. With a significant lead, they are the highest-scoring team in the tournament, netting 26 goals in seven matches.

Arsenal and Inter share 3rd and 4th place with 16 points each. The beauty of the new Champions League format is that even they haven’t yet officially secured a direct spot in the Round of 16, though the chances are incredibly high. In the final Round, a draw will be enough for both teams to skip the Round of 32 and advance directly to the knockout stage. The Gunners will face Girona, while Inter hosts Monaco.

Atletico Madrid and Milan are in fifth and sixth place with 15 points, respectively. Theoretically, they could still drop out of the top eight, but in practice, this is unlikely. Los Colchoneros will visit Salzburg, while the Rossoneri will face Dinamo Zagreb.

Atalanta, with 14 points, is in seventh place. The Bergamaschi have a tough task ahead as they travel to face Barcelona. If the Catalans play at full strength, they could easily deny the Italians a place in the top eight.

The Mid-Table Pack

Next, we have a group of teams sitting on 13 points: Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille, and Brest.

Leverkusen faces Sparta Prague in the final Round, and given their strong form, Xabi Alonso’s men should comfortably secure a top-eight finish.

Aston Villa will host Celtic, and with their impressive performances so far, Unai Emery’s side are favorites. The Scottish team, currently 18th with 12 points, is unlikely to make the Round of 16 but is safe from elimination.

Monaco, led by Aleksandr Golovin, faces a tough test against Inter, who are almost guaranteed a top-eight spot. The Monegasques will need an extraordinary performance to pull off an upset.

Feyenoord, after shocking Europe by thrashing Bayern Munich, will take on Lille, its direct competitor. Meanwhile, the tournament’s biggest surprise, Brest, has a daunting challenge against Real Madrid.

The reigning Champions League winners are only in 16th place but have already secured a playoff spot. However, with favorable results elsewhere, Carlo Ancelotti’s side could still break into the top eight—though that remains challenging. Los Blancos will have to rely on slip-ups from rivals while also needing a dominant away win over Brest.

From 14th to 18th place sit Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Juventus, and Celtic, all with 12 points. Each of these teams has secured a place in the top 24.

With 11 points, PSV is the only team that cannot make the top eight but is safe from elimination. They will face Liverpool in the final Round.

Teams Already Eliminated from the Champions League

RB Leipzig secured their first win only in Round 7, beating Sporting CP (2-1). However, three points gained so late meant nothing, as an inconsistent start with six consecutive losses sealed their fate.

Teams with three points suffered similar fates: Salzburg, Sturm Graz, Girona, and Red Star Belgrade. They joined the fight too late, and their European campaigns are now over.

Slovan Bratislava and Young Boys were the biggest disappointments, both suffering defeats in all seven matches—a tournament-record low. Sparta Prague and Bologna performed slightly better, collecting four and five points, respectively, but it wasn’t enough. While they left a positive impression, experience prevailed in the competition.

The Survival Battle

Now, for the most intriguing part, teams are at risk of exiting the Champions League after the general stage. And the biggest name in danger is Manchester City.

Pep Guardiola and his team always found a way to escape tricky situations. However, this season has been ruthless. After seven rounds, City sits in 25th place. Their final match, at home against Club Brugge, will determine their fate.

A victory would lift City to 11 points, surpassing the Belgian side (currently 20th) based on goal difference. But if the English champions slip up, their European season will end in January. The scenario was unthinkable before the tournament started, but Guardiola’s nightmares are becoming reality. Given City’s inconsistent performances this season, nothing can be ruled out. Erling Haaland and company must step up when there is no room for error.

PSG, meanwhile, defeated City (4-2) in Round 7 but has yet to guarantee a spot in the top 24. Despite flashes of brilliance, their results have been inconsistent. In the decisive Round, Luis Enrique’s men will face Stuttgart away. A draw would almost certainly secure PSG’s place in the playoffs. But a loss could open the door for rivals.

The biggest threat comes from Benfica and Sporting CP, who will face Juventus and Bologna. If both Portuguese clubs win, PSG could be in grave danger.

While PSG’s elimination seems unlikely, Stuttgart (10 points, 24th place) could spring a surprise. A group-stage exit for Luis Enrique would mark one of the club’s biggest modern failures.

Shakhtar Donetsk and Dinamo Zagreb still have mathematical chances of making the playoffs. Still, they must beat Borussia Dortmund and Milan, respectively, while hoping for favorable results elsewhere — a highly improbable scenario.

The debate over whether the old or new Champions League format is better will continue. But one thing is clear: the new format has brought freshness and unpredictability. Under the old system, most teams already knew their fate before the final Round, and the suspense was often gone. Now, things are different. Even the most prominent clubs are on the brink of elimination, and every match in Round 8 could turn into a drama.

Perhaps it’s this element of unpredictability that makes the new tournament format even more exciting for fans.

Published by Patrick Jane
23.01.2025