German football’s biggest rivalry returns with silverware on the line as Borussia Dortmund face Bayern Munich in the German Super Cup. Bayern won both Bundesliga meetings between the sides last season and also came out on top in their two most recent Super Cup clashes. Can Niko Kovač finally find a way to stop the Bavarians, or will Bayern add another trophy under Vincent Kompany?
Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund took some time to get going in pre-season. Defeats to Fortuna Düsseldorf (1-2) and Cerezo Osaka (0-1) hardly inspired confidence, although those results came with an obvious caveat: Kovač rotated heavily and gave plenty of minutes to youngsters and fringe players, including Yamamoto, Albert and Duarte. As the summer progressed and the lineups became stronger, the results improved. Dortmund beat Arsenal 3-2 to win the Emirates Cup and then drew 2-2 with Roma. There was still some rotation in those games, but nothing like we saw earlier in pre-season.
Kovač has always valued discipline, compactness and defensive organisation. His usual 3-4-2-1 becomes something closer to a 5-2-3 without the ball, and the back three used most recently has been Gadu, Mané and Bensebaini. With Schlotterbeck injured, that is also the combination we expect to start against Bayern.
The key for Dortmund will be what happens immediately after they win the ball. Bayern defend high and can leave space behind, so quick transitions should be Dortmund’s best route to goal. Kovač has enough pace to make that work, with Svensson and Ryerson providing energy out wide and summer signing Konstantinos Karetsas also pushing for a place in the starting XI after featuring heavily during pre-season.
Dortmund sold Karim Adeyemi to Barcelona this summer, although the German had already lost some of his importance to the team last season. Julian Brandt’s departure potentially leaves a bigger creative hole, but Dortmund have tried to cover it with Karetsas and Giannis Konstantelias.
Borussia last won the German Super Cup in 2019, beating Bayern 2-0. There is a nice twist to that story: Bayern were managed by Kovač that night. The following two Super Cup meetings, in 2020 and 2021, both went Bayern’s way.
Still, Kovač knows his way around knockout football. He has won the German Cup with two different clubs, Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern, and his approach in major one-off games has rarely changed: stay organised, limit space and attack quickly when the opportunity appears. Expect Dortmund to follow exactly that plan here.
Bayern Munich
Bayern also had an unusual pre-season because several key players were given extra rest after the 2026 World Cup. Harry Kane, Michael Olise and Dayot Upamecano were among those who returned later, so there is little point reading too much into some of Bayern’s early friendlies, when Kompany used a large number of youngsters and heavily rotated his squad.
The final three games are more useful: Bayern beat Aston Villa 2-1, RB Leipzig 3-1 and Heidenheim 4-2. There were still changes, but by that stage the team was starting to look much closer to the one we should see in the Super Cup.
Stylistically, there are few surprises. Kompany wants Bayern to dominate possession, recover the ball quickly and press aggressively man-to-man with a very high defensive line. That approach has produced results, but it also created problems during pre-season. Bayern were repeatedly vulnerable when opponents escaped the first wave of pressure and attacked the space behind the defence.
That makes Dortmund dangerous. Kovač has built a side capable of moving the ball forward quickly, so Bayern cannot afford to become careless when committing numbers into attack.
Kompany, however, already has a strong record in decisive domestic games. Bayern won both the 2025 Super Cup and the 2025/26 German Cup final under the Belgian, beating Stuttgart 2-1 and 3-0 respectively. Stuttgart also tried to hurt Bayern on the counter, and neither attempt was enough.
Olise has spent much of the summer being linked with Real Madrid, but for now he remains a Bayern player. He, Kane and Upamecano joined the squad later than most, but all have now had time to prepare, with Olise and Kane getting minutes against Heidenheim. We expect all three to start.
Bayern also strengthened the squad with left-back Nathaniel Brown and attacking midfielder Ismael Saibari. Both were regularly used with the first team during pre-season and have a good chance of starting the Super Cup. Saibari’s inclusion looks even more likely because Jamal Musiala is unavailable. The midfielder suffered several worrying fainting episodes during friendly matches. Musiala has since said that he feels fine, but he will not play here. Konrad Laimer is another doubt after picking up a minor injury during the training camp.
Referee: Daniel Schlager
Daniel Schlager generally allows games to flow and does not whistle for every bit of contact, but he is more willing to reach for his cards. Across 29 matches in all competitions last season and at the beginning of the current campaign, he averaged 4.41 yellow cards and 22.14 fouls per game. Interestingly, Bayern did not receive a single card in their last two matches officiated by Schlager.
Main Prediction: Bayern Munich to Win — 1.68
Bayern are clear favourites, and that looks justified. Yes, several of their biggest names returned later because of their post-World Cup break, but Kane, Olise and the rest have already started getting minutes. More importantly, even with mixed lineups, Kompany’s team managed to beat Aston Villa and Leipzig. That says plenty about the depth available to him.
Dortmund cannot really claim a significant advantage in terms of preparation either. Their pre-season was uneven, and their better results only arrived towards the end of the schedule.
Ultimately, this matchup comes down to styles. Kovač wants discipline and compact defending, but Kompany beat him twice in the Bundesliga last season. That Dortmund back line is also a concern. Gadu is likely to be thrown straight into his first competitive game as part of a relatively new defensive unit, and the opposition could hardly be tougher: Kane, Olise and Díaz.
Dortmund should have their moments on the counter, but keeping Bayern out for 90 minutes looks like a much harder task.
Prediction: Bayern Munich to win at 1.68.
Goals Prediction: Over 3.5 — 1.89
There is also a strong case for goals. Both teams saw their final two serious pre-season tests, when the starting lineups were much closer to full strength, finish with more than 3.5 goals. Three of the last four Super Cup meetings between Dortmund and Bayern also produced at least four goals.
The tactical setup points in the same direction. Bayern will take control and push high up the pitch, while Dortmund are built to attack the space that inevitably appears behind Kompany’s defensive line. With the main attacking players back and available, this has the ingredients for another open Klassiker.
It would be no surprise if Dortmund score. The bigger question is whether they can stop Bayern from scoring two or three themselves.
Prediction: Over 3.5 goals at 1.89.
Published by Patrick Jane
22.08.2026